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88 comments
84 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 85.00% on 2025-09-12 for the Metaculus question "If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?"?

resultNo
89 comments
84 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 45.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question "Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?"?

resultYes
85 comments
84 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 52.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question "Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?"?

resultNo

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

4
0 comments
0 comments
107 forecasters

[PRACTICE] What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?

Latest estimate
34.3%

This question is closed for forecasting.

Contributed by the JetBrains community.

0 comments
3 forecasters

For these benchmarks, what percentage of problems do you estimate the top-performing AI model or agent will be able to solve by December'25?

AI2 Reasoning Challenge97.9
Toloka's µ-MATH94.1
Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A90.8
0 comments
108 forecasters

[PRACTICE] What will be the community prediction of this question divided by 2?

Latest estimate
15.8 units

This question is closed for forecasting.

14 comments
84 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind20%
Microsoft5%
xAI4%

Platform feature suggestions

112
3k3k comments
Metaculus Meta

Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup

5
3838 comments
Metaculus Cup Fall 2025