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Will the community prediction be higher than 19.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment

11 forecasters

Will the US stock market crash by more than 10% in any 5-day trading period before January 1, 2027?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 42 minutes

0 comments

87 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 92.10% on 2025-10-12 for the Metaculus question "Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?"?

60%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup

46 46 comments

Metaculus Cup Fall 2025

627 comments

1.8k forecasters

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate

Jul 2033

16 comments

66 forecasters

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

45%chance

5% this week

0 comments

31 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%

Google Cloud14.2%

Microsoft Azure14%

2 comments

39 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%

Microsoft Azure5%

Amazon Web Services5%

2 comments

14 forecasters

Will Aschenbrenner’s ‘drop-in remote AI workers’ be developed by the end of 2027?

75%chance

15% this week