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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

12
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index

Report: Pro Forecasters Expect Steady NIH and NSF Funding

5
33 comments
Research Agencies Outlook
0 comments
99 forecasters

Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?

37.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
97 forecasters

Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?

88%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

4
1010 comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025
0 comments
96 forecasters

Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?

72.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
92 forecasters

Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?

30%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
33 comments
AI Pathways Tournament
1 comment
36 forecasters

Will Alassane Ouattara win 80% or more of the first round vote in the 2025 presidential election of Ivory Coast (Côte d'Ivoire)?

Current estimate
Revealed in 2 days
89 comments
84 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 45.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question "Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?"?

resultYes