Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
🗳️
US Democracy Index
❓
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
🗞️
In the News
🦾
AI Forecasting Benchmark
📈
Indexes
💎
Metaculus Cup
🌍
AI Pathways
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
0
comments
3
forecasters
Will the combined smartphone market share of Chinese brands in Africa be at least 50% based on the 12‑month average for January–December 2030?
99.9%
chance
31.5%
this week
0
comments
3
forecasters
By 2031, will at least two new significant regulatory actions restricting China's access to advanced semiconductor technology be implemented?
99.9%
chance
20%
this week
6
comments
11
forecasters
Will legislation pass before 2029 that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest income bracket?
34%
chance
41%
this week
0
comments
97
forecasters
What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (December)
Latest estimate
241
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
97
forecasters
What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (November)
Latest estimate
250
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
34
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH
30%
Google Cloud
16%
Amazon Web Services
15%
1 other
6
comments
16
forecasters
How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market?
2
comments
41
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH
25%
Amazon Web Services
5%
Microsoft Azure
5%
1 other
$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1
8
6
6
comments
AI Pathways Tournament
condition
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?
5
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
19%
19%
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
14%
14%
1
1
comment
5
5
forecasters
Load More