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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

13
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
0 comments
99 forecasters

Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?

37.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
96 forecasters

Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?

72.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
22 comments
AI Pathways Tournament
0 comments
6 forecasters

How will Bright Line Watch experts rate US democracy on a 0-100 scale at the end of the following years?

202551.7
202649.6
202749
0 comments
9 forecasters

Will the U.S. presidential administration alter or delay the public release of a major federal economic indicator in the following years?

6 comments
108 forecasters

What will be the percentage increase for the minimum wage in Colombia for 2026?

Current estimate
8.75%
14 comments
85 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind13%
Microsoft5%
xAI3%

Forecast the Minimum Wage in Colombia: $1,000 Prize Pool

5
55 comments
Colombia Wage Watch

Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup

5
3939 comments
Metaculus Cup Fall 2025