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0 comments
3 forecasters

Will the combined smartphone market share of Chinese brands in Africa be at least 50% based on the 12‑month average for January–December 2030?

99.9%chance
31.5% this week
0 comments
3 forecasters

By 2031, will at least two new significant regulatory actions restricting China's access to advanced semiconductor technology be implemented?

99.9%chance
20% this week
6 comments
11 forecasters

Will legislation pass before 2029 that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest income bracket?

34%chance
41% this week
0 comments
97 forecasters

What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (December)

Latest estimate
241

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
97 forecasters

What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (November)

Latest estimate
250

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
34 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH30%
Google Cloud16%
Amazon Web Services15%
6 comments
16 forecasters

How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market?

2 comments
41 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
66 comments
AI Pathways Tournament
condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

19%
19%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

14%
14%
11 comment
5
5 forecasters