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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index
13
0
comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
0
comments
99
forecasters
Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?
37.5%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
96
forecasters
Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?
72.5%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1
8
2
2
comments
AI Pathways Tournament
0
comments
6
forecasters
How will Bright Line Watch experts rate US democracy on a 0-100 scale at the end of the following years?
2025
51.7
2026
49.6
2027
49
1 other
0
comments
9
forecasters
Will the U.S. presidential administration alter or delay the public release of a major federal economic indicator in the following years?
6
comments
108
forecasters
What will be the percentage increase for the minimum wage in Colombia for 2026?
Current estimate
8.75%
14
comments
85
forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind
13%
Microsoft
5%
xAI
3%
14 others
Forecast the Minimum Wage in Colombia: $1,000 Prize Pool
5
5
5
comments
Colombia Wage Watch
Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup
5
39
39
comments
Metaculus Cup Fall 2025
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