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28
comments
289
forecasters
Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?
20%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
Threshold 2030: 30 economists & AI policy experts forecast AI's economic impact
5
1
1
comment
7
comments
36
forecasters
What will Poland's Economist Democracy Index be in 2030?
Current estimate
7.46
200
comments
2.1k
forecasters
Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?
20%
chance
Key Factors
Putin won the 2024 Russian election with 87% of the vote, indicating strong political control and consolidation of power.
Russia's defense spending will make up 32.5% of its federal budget in 2025, up from 28.3% in 2024, indicating a significant focus on military activities.
Almost half of Russians want Putin to open talks to end the war in Ukraine, indicating potential domestic pressure for policy change.
41
comments
205
forecasters
Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?
result
No
Economist 2021 Series Announcement
8
13
13
comments
Economist 2021
8
comments
37
forecasters
Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?
60%
chance
What Is the Future of American Financial Surveillance?
10
1
1
comment
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