Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

🗳️

US Democracy Index

❓

What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025?

1 comment

9 forecasters

Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?

15%chance

22.4% this week

1 comment

18 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%

Naura35%

Nata30%

2 comments

32 forecasters

What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?

community

3.29

result

3.13

0 comments

45 forecasters

What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?

Latest estimate

5.52%

This question is closed for forecasting.

7 comments

35 forecasters

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?

22%chance

4 comments

29 forecasters

How many zero emission light vehicles will be available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) in the United States for the following model years?

41 comments

136 forecasters

What will be the China-to-USA GDP ratio in 2050?

Current estimate

1.18 ratio

23 comments

29 forecasters

What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023?

UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%result: Yes

UR < 4.5%, core PCE < 3%result: No

UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%result: No

3 comments

19 forecasters

Will "stagflation" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the "misery index" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months?

5%chance

2% this week