Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

❓

Will the U.S. presidential administration alter or delay the public release of a major federal economic indicator in the following years?

6 comments

62 forecasters

Will the US national debt be under $38 trillion on September 30, 2025?

75%chance

15% this week

10 comments

116 forecasters

Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?

92%chance

7 comments

34 forecasters

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?

22%chance

23 comments

29 forecasters

What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023?

UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%result: Yes

UR < 4.5%, core PCE < 3%result: No

UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%result: No

6 comments

32 forecasters

What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years?

15 comments

93 forecasters

Will a recession begin in the United States in the following years?

4 comments

394 forecasters

What will the effective US tariff rate on goods being imported into the United States be at the end of 2026?

Current estimate

9.67%

10 comments

40 forecasters

What will be the average tariff on goods entering the United States for Q4 2025?

Current estimate

8.01%

6 comments

19 forecasters

Will the U.S. presidential administration alter or delay the public release of a major federal economic indicator in the following years?

Will the US national debt be under $38 trillion on September 30, 2025?

Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?

What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023?

What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years?

Will a recession begin in the United States in the following years?

What will the effective US tariff rate on goods being imported into the United States be at the end of 2026?

What will be the average tariff on goods entering the United States for Q4 2025?

What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years?

Will the U.S. presidential administration alter or delay the public release of a major federal economic indicator in the following years?

Will the US national debt be under $38 trillion on September 30, 2025?

Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?

What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023?

What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years?

Will a recession begin in the United States in the following years?

What will the effective US tariff rate on goods being imported into the United States be at the end of 2026?

What will be the average tariff on goods entering the United States for Q4 2025?

What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years?