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5
comments
59
forecasters
Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?
9%
chance
5%
this week
21
comments
90
forecasters
Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election?
Keir Starmer
23%
Andy Burnham
15%
Rachel Reeves
10%
6 others
9
comments
13
forecasters
Will Israel participate in the Eurovision Song Contest 2026?
74%
chance
9%
this week
7
comments
63
forecasters
Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?
7%
chance
3%
this week
1
comment
11
forecasters
Who will win the 2025 Green Party of England and Wales leadership election?
Zack Polanski
result:
Yes
Adrian Ramsay and Ellie Chowns
23.2%
5
comments
46
forecasters
Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?
50%
chance
5
comments
70
forecasters
Democracy in Crisis: how many autocrats, strongmen and dictators in 2028?
Latest estimate
48
This question is closed for forecasting.
7
comments
41
forecasters
Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, also a member of the European Union?
result
No
10
comments
65
forecasters
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates?
11
comments
75
forecasters
Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by an EU member?
result
Yes
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