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US Democracy Index

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Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Jeannette Jara65%

José Antonio Kast27.5%

Evelyn Matthei2.5%

8 comments

13 forecasters

Will a referendum on adopting the euro be officially announced in the Czech Republic before 2030?

25%chance

Key Factors

9 comments

28 forecasters

Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023?

NSCresult: No

VVDresult: No

PvdA-GLresult: No

5 comments

80 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

4%chance

3% this week

Key Factors

13 comments

11 forecasters

How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election?

ANO 2011result: 80 seats

Civic Democratic Party (ODS)result: 27 seats

Mayors and Independents (STAN)result: 22 seats

1 comment

12 forecasters

Will the UK join or create a youth mobility scheme with the EU before 2030?

90%chance

4% this week

52 comments

93 forecasters

Will the following countries be part of the European Union in 2050?

Montenegro96%

North Macedonia87.5%

Albania85%

21 comments

58 forecasters

Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election?

Keir Starmer23%

Andy Burnham15%

Lisa Nandy10%

52 comments

27 forecasters

When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process?

2 comments

43 forecasters

Will Pedro Sánchez, the Prime Minister of Spain, call for general elections before 2026?

7%chance