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US Democracy Index

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Will a referendum on adopting the euro be officially announced in the Czech Republic before 2030?

25%chance

Key Factors

5 comments

89 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

3%chance

Key Factors

2 comments

38 forecasters

Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?

resultYes

0 comments

1 forecaster

Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?

Annulled

13 comments

11 forecasters

How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election?

ANO 2011result: 80 seats

Civic Democratic Party (ODS)result: 27 seats

Mayors and Independents (STAN)result: 22 seats

16 comments

39 forecasters

Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election?

Luisa Gonzálezresult: No

Daniel Noboa Azínresult: Yes

Xavier Hervasresult: No

2 comments

34 forecasters

Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?

EPPresult: Yes

S&Dresult: No

IDresult: No

Contributed by the Odborný Predikční Tým community.

10 comments

8 forecasters

If there is a violent attack by an individual in the EU with 50 or more victims in the next 5 years, how likely is it that they will be followers of the ideology:

Pravicový extremismus45.6%

Islámský extremismus44.7%

Levicový a anarchistický extremismus5.8%

5 comments

48 forecasters

Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?

50%chance

9 comments

28 forecasters

Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023?

NSCresult: No

VVDresult: No

PvdA-GLresult: No