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US Democracy Index

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Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?"?

resultNo

6 comments

12 forecasters

What will be the lead of Zohran Mamdani in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Current estimate

14.7 pp

0 comments

94 forecasters

Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?

Both elections60.5%

Only Virginia24.2%

Only New Jersey9.5%

This question is closed for forecasting.

11 comments

63 forecasters

Who will be elected governor of New Jersey in 2025?

The Democratic Party candidate (Mikie Sherrill)63.9%

The Republican Party candidate (Jack Ciattarelli)35%

Other1%

3.9k comments

3.6k forecasters

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Gretchen Whitmerresult: No

Pete Buttigiegresult: No

418 comments

1.2k forecasters

Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Nikki Haleyresult: No

Ron DeSantisresult: No

75 comments

173 forecasters

Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?

2.5%chance

82 comments

235 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes

Kamala Harris (D)result: No

Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled

6 comments

55 forecasters

Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025?

resultYes

584 comments

1.2k forecasters

Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Kamala Harrisresult: Yes

Joe Bidenresult: No

Gavin Newsomresult: No