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US Democracy Index

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Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 US Senate election in the following states?

GeorgiaUpcoming

IowaUpcoming

MaineUpcoming

122 comments

168 forecasters

[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?

Mike Johnson (R)result: Yes

Kevin Hern (R)Annulled

Steve Scalise (R)result: No

2 comments

18 forecasters

What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?

Current estimate

-10.6 seats

condition

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?

20 forecasters

if yes

if no

What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?

-2.06

What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?

20 forecasters

453 forecasters

Which party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?

Democrats70%

Republicans29.9%

Other0.1%

Key Factors

Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

6 6 comments

U.S. Democracy Threat Index

0 comments

90 forecasters

Who will win the Texas 18th district special election?

Amanda Edwards31.8%

Christian Menefee31.2%

Jolanda Jones16.5%

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment

35 forecasters

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana’s two majority-Black districts, restoring a GOP-leaning map?

81%chance

Key Factors

24 comments

20 forecasters

How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years?

38 comments

64 forecasters

What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Democraticresult: 48.3242

Republicanresult: 49.79607

Greenresult: 0.555306