What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on the eve of Election Day 2026?9% (8.4 - 9.7)0 comments1111 forecasters9% (8.4 - 9.7)
Will five of the 25 best-known political figures of each party claim that fraud or other illegal conduct affected the 2026 midterms?211 comment3636 forecasters
What will be the total spending by all Senate candidates in the 2026 US election cycle?1.6B $ (1.49B - 1.75B)1111 comments109109 forecasters1.6B $ (1.49B - 1.75B)
Will widespread non-citizen voting occur in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections?0.1% chance-21010 comments3131 forecasters0.1%chance
Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 US Senate election in the following states?41010 comments152152 forecasters
Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 gubernatorial election in the following US states?222 comments9494 forecasters
What will be the US National Science Foundation discretionary budget for the 2028 fiscal year, conditional on control of Congress?133 comments6262 forecasters
Will the Democrats control the House of Representatives at any point before Jan 3, 2027?2% chance277 comments3434 forecasters2%chance
What will the U.S. score on the Rule of Law Index in 2028, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments3232 forecasters
Which party will control the US Congress following the 2026 midterm elections?1388 comments216216 forecasters
What will the total enacted U.S. foreign aid appropriations be for FY2028, conditional on control of Congress?111 comment5555 forecasters
How many Article III appellate judges will be confirmed by the US Senate in 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?111 comment6363 forecasters
What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?33 comments6464 forecasters
Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?50% chance1899 comments101101 forecasters50%chance
What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?-23 seats (-37 - -13)41717 comments132132 forecasters-23 seats (-37 - -13)
Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections?157373 comments314314 forecasters
Will the U.S. Congress limit presidential war powers before January 3, 2029, conditional on control of Congress?144 comments8484 forecasters
Which party will hold the most seats in the US Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?151919 comments494494 forecasters
Will AI safety legislation be enacted in 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?222 comments7272 forecasters
Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states?91616 comments3838 forecasters
Will the U.S. House maps for the following years give any major party an efficiency-gap advantage of ≥20 seats nationwide?22 comments109109 forecasters