What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on September 15, 2026?6.8% (6.2 - 7.5)0 comments1010 forecasters6.8% (6.2 - 7.5)
Which party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?11 comment104104 forecasters
Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 US Senate election in the following states?377 comments107107 forecasters
What will the U.S. score on the Rule of Law Index in 2028, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments1919 forecasters
Will the 2026 U.S. midterm elections be considered "free and fair"?92% chance388 comments4646 forecasters92%chance
What will the total enacted U.S. foreign aid appropriations be for FY2028, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments3131 forecasters
What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?22 comments4343 forecasters
Will AI safety legislation be enacted in 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?111 comment4343 forecasters
How many Article III appellate judges will be confirmed by the US Senate in 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments4141 forecasters
Will the U.S. Congress limit presidential war powers before January 3, 2029, conditional on control of Congress?11 comment5656 forecasters
Will widespread non-citizen voting occur in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections?0.5% chance-288 comments2828 forecasters0.5%chance
Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 gubernatorial election in the following US states?10 comments6565 forecasters
Will the 120th Congress pass a bill restoring enhanced ACA premium tax credits, conditional on control of Congress?44 comments3939 forecasters
What will be the US National Science Foundation discretionary budget for the 2028 fiscal year, conditional on control of Congress?22 comments4040 forecasters
What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?-7 seats (-17 - -1)31414 comments9292 forecasters-7 seats (-17 - -1)
Will Donald Trump be impeached for a third time, conditional on control of Congress?20 comments6565 forecasters
What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on June 14, 2026?6.6% (6.4 - 6.8)122 comments1010 forecastersResolved6.4%
Will there be an unfilled Supreme Court vacancy on January 20, 2029, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments5353 forecasters
Will a bill restricting federal abortion funding or access pass both chambers of the 120th Congress, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments5353 forecasters