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0
comments
10
forecasters
What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?
Current estimate
-4.49 seats
condition
In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?
2
forecasters
if yes
if no
What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?
What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?
0
comments
2
2
forecasters
POTUS Predictions
4
comments
64
forecasters
When will Adelita Grijalva be sworn in?
Current estimate
14 Nov 2025
122
comments
168
forecasters
[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?
Mike Johnson (R)
result:
Yes
Kevin Hern (R)
Annulled
Steve Scalise (R)
result:
No
18 others
1
comment
32
forecasters
In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?
80%
chance
8%
this week
Key Factors
Roberts and Kavanaugh's stance on race policies
Ambivalence in oral arguments by Roberts and Barrett
Alexander v. South Carolina NAACP (2024)
16
comments
38
forecasters
Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states?
Texas
result:
Yes
Florida
result:
Yes
Missouri
result:
Yes
12 others
38
comments
64
forecasters
What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Democratic
result:
48.3242
Republican
result:
49.79607
Green
result:
0.555306
3 others
0
comments
90
forecasters
Who will win the Texas 18th district special election?
Amanda Edwards
31.8%
Christian Menefee
31.2%
Jolanda Jones
16.5%
4 others
20%
This question is closed for forecasting.
Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index
16
6
6
comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
73
comments
314
forecasters
Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections?
Democrat Senate, Rep House
result:
Yes
Republican Senate & House
result:
No
Republican Senate, Dem House
result:
No
1 other
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