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US Democracy Index

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Will two or more losing major-party candidates for governor or U.S. Senator in competitive races refuse to concede defeat in the following general elections?

condition

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?

9 forecasters

if yes

if no

What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?

0 comments

9 forecasters

POTUS Predictions

122 comments

168 forecasters

[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?

Mike Johnson (R)result: Yes

Kevin Hern (R)Annulled

Steve Scalise (R)result: No

16 comments

38 forecasters

Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states?

Texasresult: Yes

Floridaresult: Yes

Missouriresult: Yes

73 comments

314 forecasters

Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections?

Democrat Senate, Rep Houseresult: Yes

Republican Senate & Houseresult: No

Republican Senate, Dem Houseresult: No

1 comment

32 forecasters

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?

81%chance

Key Factors

15 comments

8 forecasters

How many congressional seats will California lose as a result of the 2030 census?

140%

234.8%

≥334.2%

19 comments

31 forecasters

Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024?

Senator Bob Menendez (D)result: Yes

Representative Josh Gottheimer (D)result: No

Representative Frank Pallone (D)result: No

75 comments

107 forecasters

[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?

Kevin McCarthy (R)result: Yes

Elise Stefanik (R)result: No

Donald Trump (R)result: No

17 comments

449 forecasters

Which party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?

Democrats70%

Republicans29.9%

Other0.1%

Key Factors