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US Democracy Index

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Will George Conway, vocal critic of Donald Trump, announce a run for the US Congress before April 2, 2026?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 4 days

0 comments

7 forecasters

Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 US Senate election in the following states?

GeorgiaUpcoming

IowaUpcoming

MaineUpcoming

122 comments

168 forecasters

[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?

Mike Johnson (R)result: Yes

Kevin Hern (R)Annulled

Steve Scalise (R)result: No

condition

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?

20 forecasters

if yes

if no

What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?

-3.09

What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?

20 forecasters

36 forecasters

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana’s two majority-Black districts, restoring a GOP-leaning map?

81%chance

Key Factors

18 comments

454 forecasters

Which party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?

Democrats71.3%

Republicans28.6%

Other0.1%

Key Factors

73 comments

314 forecasters

Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections?

Democrat Senate, Rep Houseresult: Yes

Republican Senate & Houseresult: No

Republican Senate, Dem Houseresult: No

75 comments

107 forecasters

[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?

Kevin McCarthy (R)result: Yes

Elise Stefanik (R)result: No

Donald Trump (R)result: No

16 comments

38 forecasters

Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states?

Texasresult: Yes

Floridaresult: Yes

Missouriresult: Yes

0 comments

93 forecasters

Which Chamber of the US Congress will vote on a bill in furtherance of an acquisition of Greenland, before 2026?

Neither69.5%

House of Representatives21.1%

Both5%

This question is closed for forecasting.