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1
comment
45
forecasters
Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?
Jeannette Jara
40%
José Antonio Kast
37%
Evelyn Matthei
9%
5 others
35
comments
37
forecasters
Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires?
Jack Smith (special counsel)
result:
No
Barack Obama
result:
No
Fani Willis (Fulton Co. DA)
result:
No
8 others
Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index
16
5
5
comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
15
comments
16
forecasters
When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?
00
418
comments
1.2k
forecasters
Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump
result:
Yes
Nikki Haley
result:
No
Ron DeSantis
result:
No
14 others
82
comments
235
forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump (R)
result:
Yes
Kamala Harris (D)
result:
No
Gavin Newsom (D)
Annulled
17 others
0
comments
47
forecasters
Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent certification of any statewide election result in the following years because of fraud?
13
comments
35
forecasters
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?
10%
chance
584
comments
1.2k
forecasters
Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Kamala Harris
result:
Yes
Joe Biden
result:
No
Gavin Newsom
result:
No
13 others
3.9k
comments
3.6k
forecasters
Who will be elected US President in 2024?
Donald Trump
result:
Yes
Gretchen Whitmer
result:
No
Pete Buttigieg
result:
No
17 others
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