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US Democracy Index

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Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

35 comments

37 forecasters

Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires?

Jack Smith (special counsel)result: No

Barack Obamaresult: No

Fani Willis (Fulton Co. DA)result: No

418 comments

1.2k forecasters

Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Nikki Haleyresult: No

Ron DeSantisresult: No

1 comment

14 forecasters

Which party's nominee will win the 2028 US presidential election?

Democratic Party52.5%

Republican Party47.4%

Other0.1%

0 comments

3 forecasters

What will be the Democratic candidate's Electoral College margin in the 2028 US presidential election?

Current estimate

10.5 votes

3.9k comments

3.6k forecasters

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Gretchen Whitmerresult: No

Pete Buttigiegresult: No

82 comments

235 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes

Kamala Harris (D)result: No

Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled

3 comments

13 forecasters

Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Jeannette Jara80%

José Antonio Kast20%

Evelyn Matthei2.6%

0 comments

17 forecasters

Will the losing major-party candidate in the following U.S. presidential elections refuse to concede defeat before electors meet?

14 comments

16 forecasters

What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024?

Alaskaresult: 13.1

Iowaresult: 13.2

Ohioresult: 11.1