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US Democracy Index

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Will the losing major-party candidate in the following U.S. presidential elections refuse to concede defeat before electors meet?

1 comment

11 forecasters

Which party's nominee will win the 2028 US presidential election?

Republican PartyUpcoming

Democratic PartyUpcoming

OtherUpcoming

418 comments

1.2k forecasters

Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Nikki Haleyresult: No

Ron DeSantisresult: No

3.9k comments

3.6k forecasters

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Gretchen Whitmerresult: No

Pete Buttigiegresult: No

82 comments

235 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes

Kamala Harris (D)result: No

Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled

38 comments

64 forecasters

What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Democraticresult: 48.3242

Republicanresult: 49.79607

Greenresult: 0.555306

2 comments

12 forecasters

Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Jeannette Jara62.5%

José Antonio Kast27.5%

Evelyn Matthei2.5%

0 comments

46 forecasters

Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?

24 comments

150 forecasters

Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?

15%chance

5% this week

83 comments

46 forecasters

How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?

community

4.03

result