What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?292020 comments191191 forecasters
What will the average global surface air temperature be in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?1.5 °C (1.45 - 1.55)88 comments701701 forecasters1.5 °C (1.45 - 1.55)
Will any official weather station in India record air temperatures of at least 55.0°C (131.0°F) for three or more consecutive days before January 1, 2050?80% chance122 comments44 forecasters80%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?10% chance355252 comments294294 forecasters10%chance
Five years after AGI, what will be global carbon emissions?34.5B billion tonnes (23.1B - 44.1B)222 comments2424 forecasters34.5B billion tonnes (23.1B - 44.1B)
Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?344 comments11 forecaster
China CO2 Emissions Reduction by 60% by 2030 → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?311 comment55 forecasters
Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?211 comment55 forecasters
2100 CO2 emissions exceed 20 gigatons/year? → 2100 Greenhouse Gas Emissions?20 comments55 forecasters
Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2050?68% chance511 comment2828 forecasters68%chance
Will the EU rank above the US and China every year until 2030, according to the Climate Change Performance Index?97% chance311 comment3939 forecasters97%chance
Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?30.2% chance433 comments2020 forecasters30.2%chance
Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?44% chance1166 comments5454 forecasters44%chance
If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?22% chance41313 comments4545 forecasters22%chance
How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally in 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?49.7 Gt CO₂e (43.7 - 57.6)822 comments4040 forecasters49.7 Gt CO₂e (43.7 - 57.6)
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?1% chance777 comments198198 forecasters1%chance
Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?22% chance2088 comments147147 forecasters22%chance