Will any official weather station in India record air temperatures of at least 55.0°C (131.0°F) for three or more consecutive days before January 1, 2050?65% chance122 comments33 forecasters65%chance
Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA?134747 comments106106 forecasters
What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?292020 comments191191 forecasters
What will the average global surface air temperature be in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?1.46 °C (1.41 - 1.5)66 comments695695 forecasters1.46 °C (1.41 - 1.5)
Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?20% chance2088 comments146146 forecasters20%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?1% chance777 comments197197 forecasters1%chance
Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?39% chance1166 comments5454 forecasters39%chance
Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2050?68% chance511 comment2828 forecasters68%chance
Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?31% chance433 comments1717 forecasters31%chance
Five years after AGI, what will be global carbon emissions?32.1B billion tonnes (20.5B - 42.9B)222 comments2323 forecasters32.1B billion tonnes (20.5B - 42.9B)
Will the EU rank above the US and China every year until 2030, according to the Climate Change Performance Index?96% chance311 comment3939 forecasters96%chance
Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?344 comments11 forecaster
China CO2 Emissions Reduction by 60% by 2030 → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?311 comment55 forecasters
Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?211 comment55 forecasters
2100 CO2 emissions exceed 20 gigatons/year? → 2100 Greenhouse Gas Emissions?20 comments55 forecasters
If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?25% chance41313 comments4545 forecasters25%chance
How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally in 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?49.3 Gt CO₂e (43.6 - 57)822 comments4040 forecasters49.3 Gt CO₂e (43.6 - 57)
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?10% chance355252 comments294294 forecasters10%chance