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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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The Colorado River and the Southwestern US Under Climate Change

10
11 comment

Will any official weather station in India record air temperatures of at least 55.0°C (131.0°F) for three or more consecutive days before January 1, 2050?

65% chance

1
22 comments
3
3 forecasters
65%chance

Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA?

13
4747 comments
106
106 forecasters

What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?

29
2020 comments
191
191 forecasters

What will the average global surface air temperature be in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?

1.46 °C (1.41 - 1.5)

66 comments
695
695 forecasters
1.46 °C
(1.41 - 1.5)

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20% chance

20
88 comments
146
146 forecasters
20%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?

1% chance

7
77 comments
197
197 forecasters
1%chance

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

39% chance

11
66 comments
54
54 forecasters
39%chance

Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2050?

68% chance

5
11 comment
28
28 forecasters
68%chance

Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?

31% chance

4
33 comments
17
17 forecasters
31%chance

Five years after AGI, what will be global carbon emissions?

32.1B billion tonnes (20.5B - 42.9B)

2
22 comments
23
23 forecasters
32.1B billion tonnes
(20.5B - 42.9B)

Will the EU rank above the US and China every year until 2030, according to the Climate Change Performance Index?

96% chance

3
11 comment
39
39 forecasters
96%chance

Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

3
44 comments
1
1 forecaster

China CO2 Emissions Reduction by 60% by 2030 → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

3
11 comment
5
5 forecasters

Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

2
11 comment
5
5 forecasters

2100 CO2 emissions exceed 20 gigatons/year? → 2100 Greenhouse Gas Emissions?

2
0 comments
5
5 forecasters

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

25% chance

4
1313 comments
45
45 forecasters
25%chance

How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally in 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?

49.3 Gt CO₂e (43.6 - 57)

8
22 comments
40
40 forecasters
49.3 Gt CO₂e
(43.6 - 57)

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

10% chance

35
5252 comments
294
294 forecasters
10%chance

Ragnarök Series—results so far

31
3434 comments

Space Sector ‘Greenification’

10
11 comment

Biodiversity, Keystone Species, and E.O. Wilson's Half Earth

5
11 comment