Will any official weather station in India record air temperatures of at least 55.0°C (131.0°F) for three or more consecutive days before January 1, 2050?22 comments33 forecasters%chance
What will the average global surface air temperature be in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?1.45 °C (1.41 - 1.5)66 comments693693 forecasters1.45 °C (1.41 - 1.5)
Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA?134646 comments104104 forecasters
Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?22% chance2088 comments148148 forecasters22%chance
What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?292020 comments192192 forecasters
Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?31% chance433 comments1919 forecasters31%chance
Five years after AGI, what will be global carbon emissions?32.1B billion tonnes (20.5B - 42.9B)222 comments2323 forecasters32.1B billion tonnes (20.5B - 42.9B)
Will the EU rank above the US and China every year until 2030, according to the Climate Change Performance Index?96% chance311 comment3939 forecasters96%chance
How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally in 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?48.1 Gt CO₂e (41.9 - 55.1)822 comments4040 forecasters48.1 Gt CO₂e (41.9 - 55.1)
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?1% chance777 comments199199 forecasters1%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?10% chance355252 comments296296 forecasters10%chance
Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2050?67.6% chance511 comment2929 forecasters67.6%chance
Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?344 comments11 forecaster
China CO2 Emissions Reduction by 60% by 2030 → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?311 comment55 forecasters
Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?211 comment55 forecasters
2100 CO2 emissions exceed 20 gigatons/year? → 2100 Greenhouse Gas Emissions?20 comments55 forecasters
Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?31% chance1066 comments5454 forecasters31%chance
If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?25% chance41313 comments4747 forecasters25%chance