Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
🗳️
US Democracy Index
❓
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
🗞️
In the News
🦾
AI Forecasting Benchmark
📈
Indexes
💎
Metaculus Cup
🌍
AI Pathways
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
10
comments
59
forecasters
What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?
Current estimate
0.856 °C
Key Factors
Expectation to be below 2023 and 2024
Current trend is going towards higher values, November is likely to start over 0.6
Past two years had El Niño warming impact
8
comments
144
forecasters
Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?
22%
chance
20
comments
187
forecasters
What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?
52
comments
283
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?
10%
chance
7
comments
194
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?
1%
chance
8
comments
16
forecasters
What will be the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor before the given years?
condition
Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030?
1
forecaster
if yes
if no
First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?
Oct 2060
First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?
Feb 2053
3
4
4
comments
1
1
forecaster
condition
Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031?
5
forecasters
if yes
if no
First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?
Jul 2051
First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?
Apr 2034
2
1
1
comment
5
5
forecasters
13
comments
45
forecasters
If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?
25%
chance
2
comments
17
forecasters
Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?
14%
chance
Load More