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What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 2 weeks

20 comments

185 forecasters

What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?

8 comments

143 forecasters

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%chance

7 comments

194 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?

1%chance

condition

5 forecasters

52 comments

282 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

10%chance

condition

Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030?

1 forecaster

if yes

if no

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Oct 2060

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Feb 2053

4 4 comments

1 forecaster

0 comments

5 forecasters

Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?

10%chance

2 comments

17 forecasters

Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?

14%chance

1 comment

61 forecasters

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

0.1%chance

What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?

What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?

Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?

Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?

What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?

Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?

Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?