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Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

10%chance

20 comments

184 forecasters

What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?

7 comments

192 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?

1%chance

condition

5 forecasters

3 comments

18 forecasters

Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?

34%chance

2 comments

17 forecasters

Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?

14%chance

condition

Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030?

1 forecaster

if yes

if no

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Oct 2060

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Feb 2053

4 4 comments

1 forecaster

8 comments

142 forecasters

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%chance

0 comments

5 forecasters

Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?

10%chance

1 comment

60 forecasters

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

0.1%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?

Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?

Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?

Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?

Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?

Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?

Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?