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Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

22% chance

20

148

148 forecasters

22%chance

What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?

29

192

192 forecasters

Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?

14% chance

4

17

17 forecasters

14%chance

Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?

31% chance

4

19

19 forecasters

31%chance

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

0.1% chance

68

68 forecasters

0.1%chance

Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?

50.1% chance

2

8

8 forecasters

50.1%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?

1% chance

7

199

199 forecasters

1%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

10% chance

35

296

296 forecasters

10%chance

Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

3

1

1 forecaster

Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

2

5

5 forecasters

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

31% chance

10

54

54 forecasters

31%chance

New Metaculus EV and Cluster Question Ideas

2

The Colorado River and the Southwestern US Under Climate Change

9

Space Sector ‘Greenification’

10

Solar Power: Current Challenges, Encouraging Progress

12

Biodiversity, Keystone Species, and E.O. Wilson's Half Earth

5

Ryan Beck Joins the Team!

17

The Climate Tipping Points Tournament

17

Climate — Last Wave and $2,500 for Comments

9

Climate Commenting Prize Winners

9

Orbital Allies: How Space Technology Fuels Sustainable Development and Climate Action

9

Metaculus World Map Experiment

10