What will the weekly Niño 3.4 SST anomaly be for the week centered September 2, 2026?2.8 °C (2.6 - 3.1)0 comments148148 forecasters2.8 °C (2.6 - 3.1)
Will August 2026 be the warmest August on record, according to Copernicus?80% chance122 comments2323 forecasters80%chance
What will be the water level of Lake Mead (in feet) at the end of July of the following years?866 comments66 forecasters
Will there be a natural disaster causing at least 10 million deaths before 2101?55% chance355 comments2020 forecasters55%chance
What will the average global surface air temperature be in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?1.47 °C (1.42 - 1.52)77 comments696696 forecasters1.47 °C (1.42 - 1.52)
What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?899 comments8080 forecasters
What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years?2377 comments136136 forecasters
Will July 2026 be the warmest July on record, according to Copernicus?result: no399 comments2525 forecastersResolvedNo
Respiratory Outlook July Update: Screwworm continues US spread as Ebola outbreak surges in DRC40 comments
What will be the Colorado River’s average annual flow volume from 2025-2050?12.8M acre-ft (11.3M - 14.3M)10 comments88 forecasters12.8M acre-ft (11.3M - 14.3M)
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?41173173 comments282282 forecasters
What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years?599 comments6767 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?30% chance384444 comments471471 forecasters30%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance252323 comments333333 forecasters30%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?23% chance342727 comments230230 forecasters23%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?10% chance365252 comments294294 forecasters10%chance
When will 5 gigatons carbon capture in a year at a price of less than $10 per ton be achieved?2054 Year (2044 - 2064)10 comments99 forecasters2054 Year (2044 - 2064)
When will a global sensing system be operational that enables real-time, 3D atmospheric tomography at a resolution sufficient to model small-scale convective processes?2032 (2030 - 2036)30 comments99 forecasters2032 (2030 - 2036)