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0 comments
87 forecasters

Will at least one Atlantic tropical cyclone first reach Category 3 (major hurricane) intensity between 2025-10-15 00:00 UTC and 2025-11-30 23:59 UTC?

88%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
95 forecasters

Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

3 comments
66 forecasters

Which country will host the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) in 2026?

Turkeyresult: Yes
Australia68.9%
Germany9.6%
4 comments
5 forecasters

How many nations will be net zero emissions on January 1st 2035?

Current estimate
2.93 Nations
0 comments
96 forecasters

How many countries from the list below will establish space agencies or dedicated space programs specifically focused on addressing climate change and sustainable development before 2026?

Latest estimate
2.44 countries

This question is closed for forecasting.

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113
3.1k3.1k comments
Metaculus Meta

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
66 comments
AI Pathways Tournament
27 comments
74 forecasters

What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?

Current estimate
0.872 °C

Key Factors

0 comments
101 forecasters

Which country will host the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) in 2026?

Australia59.2%
Germany18.4%
Turkey17.1%

This question is closed for forecasting.

5 comments
5 forecasters

What will be the water level of Lake Mead (in feet) at the end of July of the following years?