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Radiant is Open

8

[TEST] MC probability bounds probe (delete me)

6

6 forecasters

Platform feature suggestions

113

3.4k 3.4k comments

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

45

222 222 comments

331

331 forecasters

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub Forum

3

What heat-wave "bollino" level will Italy's Ministry of Health assign to Rome for September 17, 2026?

141 141 comments

147

147 forecasters

The Market Pulse Challenge 26Q4 is Live!

4

Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

2

5

5 forecasters

What will the weekly Niño 3.4 SST anomaly be for the week centered September 2, 2026?

2.8 °C (2.6 - 3.1)

148 148 comments

148

148 forecasters

Resolved2.7 °C

Announcing: the Metaculus Cup Summer 2026 Winners!

5

The Market Pulse Challenge 26Q3 is Live!

2

What will be the water level of Lake Mead (in feet) at the end of July of the following years?

10

7

7 forecasters

Economist 2021 Series Announcement

8

Will August 2026 be the warmest August on record, according to Copernicus?

result: yes

1

23

23 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.

3

Announcing the Metaculus Cup Fall 2026 with Kiko Llaneras!

7

What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020?

6

32

32 forecasters

Renewables Forecasting

23

Will there be a natural disaster causing at least 10 million deaths before 2101?

53% chance

4

21

21 forecasters

53%chance

Will there be a large-scale power outage in the Continental Europe synchronous grid affecting multiple countries before 2028?

29.8% chance

2

26

26 forecasters

29.8%chance

Suggest questions to launch

120

2.8k 2.8k comments

What will be the world population in the following years?

9

39

39 forecasters