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0
comments
87
forecasters
Will at least one Atlantic tropical cyclone first reach Category 3 (major hurricane) intensity between 2025-10-15 00:00 UTC and 2025-11-30 23:59 UTC?
88%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
95
forecasters
Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?
10%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
3
comments
66
forecasters
Which country will host the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) in 2026?
Turkey
result:
Yes
Australia
68.9%
Germany
9.6%
2 others
1%
4
comments
5
forecasters
How many nations will be net zero emissions on January 1st 2035?
Current estimate
2.93 Nations
0
comments
96
forecasters
How many countries from the list below will establish space agencies or dedicated space programs specifically focused on addressing climate change and sustainable development before 2026?
Latest estimate
2.44 countries
This question is closed for forecasting.
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3.1k
comments
Metaculus Meta
$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1
8
6
6
comments
AI Pathways Tournament
27
comments
74
forecasters
What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?
Current estimate
0.872 °C
Key Factors
Expectation to be below 2023 and 2024
La Niña cooling cycle expected
Past two years had El Niño warming impact
0
comments
101
forecasters
Which country will host the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) in 2026?
Australia
59.2%
Germany
18.4%
Turkey
17.1%
2 others
5%
This question is closed for forecasting.
5
comments
5
forecasters
What will be the water level of Lake Mead (in feet) at the end of July of the following years?
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