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Metaculus Meta

Will New York City hit 100 degrees Fahrenheit before August 1, 2025?

60%chance

Will NOAA report that May 2025 is the hottest May on record?

resultNo

Contribute to the Metaculus Cup

5
15 comments15
Metaculus Cup

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opusresult: No
Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra5%
OpenAI / GPT-53%

Comparing Forecasting Track Records for AI Benchmarking and Beyond

15
28 comments28

Will NOAA's Climate.gov still be online on July 1, 2025?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

85%chance

Solar Power: Current Challenges, Encouraging Progress

12
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will the US military's climate resiliance portal be back online on July 1, 2025?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

15%chance

What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years?