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US Democracy Index

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What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?

Current estimate

0.856 °C

Key Factors

28 comments

289 forecasters

Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment

35 forecasters

Will the EU rank above the US and China every year until 2030, according to the Climate Change Performance Index?

96%chance

8 comments

144 forecasters

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

22%chance

condition

5 forecasters

1 comment

28 forecasters

Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2050?

66%chance

2 comments

37 forecasters

How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally in 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?

Current estimate

45.6 Gt CO₂e

condition

EU Meets 2030 Climate Targets?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Feb 2046

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Aug 2045

1 1 comment

4 forecasters

0 comments

7 forecasters

How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally in 2050 in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?

Current estimate

41.5 Gt CO₂e

0 comments

11 forecasters

Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2100?

18%chance

What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?

Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?

Will the EU rank above the US and China every year until 2030, according to the Climate Change Performance Index?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

China CO2 Emissions Reduction by 60% by 2030

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2050?

How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally in 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?

EU Meets 2030 Climate Targets?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally in 2050 in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?

Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2100?

What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?

Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?

Will the EU rank above the US and China every year until 2030, according to the Climate Change Performance Index?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

China CO2 Emissions Reduction by 60% by 2030

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2050?

How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally in 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?

EU Meets 2030 Climate Targets?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally in 2050 in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?

Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2100?