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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
3 comments
2 forecasters

Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?

60%chance
10% this week
73 comments
84 forecasters

Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026?

Sam Bankman-Friedresult: Yes
Caroline Ellisonresult: Yes
Gary Wangresult: Yes
19 comments
142 forecasters

Will the price of Bitcoin fall below $10 (2021 USD) before 2121?

29%chance
13 comments
38 forecasters

Will a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?

67%chance

Market Pulse 25Q4 Opens

3
55 comments
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q4

Contributed by the A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival community.

1 comment
19 forecasters

Will any Russian elites die under suspicious circumstances before December 1, 2025?

60%chance
5% this week
5 comments
46 forecasters

A downturn in the cryptocurrency market as a whole?

resultNo

Metaculus and Markets: What’s the Difference?

10
0 comments
0 comments
10 forecasters

Will DOJ or FTC approve a $5bn merger or acquisition after a related $1m expenditure to a group or cryptocurrency linked to the president in the following years?

Contributed by the AI Warning Signs community.

2 comments
11 forecasters

Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?

62.8%chance