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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
3 comments
1 forecaster

Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?

Current estimate
Revealed in 3 days

Contributed by the AI Warning Signs community.

2 comments
11 forecasters

Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?

62.8%chance
0 comments
46 forecasters

Will DOJ or FTC approve a $5bn merger or acquisition after a related $1m expenditure to a group or cryptocurrency linked to the president in the following years?

Contributed by the Adjacent community.

4 comments
9 forecasters

Will the market capitalization for USDT & USDC stablecoins surpass $300 billion USD by June 30, 2026?

85%chance
10% this week

Contributed by the A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival community.

1 comment
17 forecasters

Will any Russian elites die under suspicious circumstances before December 1, 2025?

60%chance
10% this week
73 comments
83 forecasters

Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026?

Sam Bankman-Friedresult: Yes
Caroline Ellisonresult: Yes
Gary Wangresult: Yes

Market Pulse 25Q4 Opens

3
55 comments
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q4
85 comments
2.9k forecasters

On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?

5%chance
4% this week
83 comments
82 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 25.00% on 2025-09-09 for the Metaculus question "Before 2030, will traditional banks offer regulated DeFi yield products, with consumer protections?"?

resultYes
10 comments
67 forecasters

Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2026?

2%chance
2% this week