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US Democracy Index

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Will Nicholas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before January 1, 2026?

9.1%chance

3.1% this week

82 comments

2.1k forecasters

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

6%chance

1 comment

33 forecasters

Will the United States invade Venezuela before January 20, 2029?

40%chance

5% this week

0 comments

92 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

19%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

14%

1 1 comment

5 forecasters

2 comments

24 forecasters

Will Zelenskyy Swap Territory/Cede Land to End the War?

30%chance

10% this week

3 comments

16 forecasters

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

37%chance

14% this week

Key Factors

0 comments

98 forecasters

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

28 comments

170 forecasters

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?

10%chance

20 comments

33 forecasters

If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?

SevastopolAnnulled

Luhansk cityAnnulled

DzhankoiAnnulled