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US Democracy Index

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Will the United States invade Venezuela before January 20, 2029?

20%chance

5% today

0 comments

92 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment

37 forecasters

Will Nicholas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before January 1, 2026?

9.1%chance

3 comments

12 forecasters

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

43%chance

14% this week

Key Factors

condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

38%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

28%

1 1 comment

5 forecasters

0 comments

98 forecasters

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

9 comments

111 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

21 comments

74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Japan1%

5 comments

78 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

4%chance

3% this week

Key Factors

20 comments

33 forecasters

If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?

SevastopolAnnulled

Luhansk cityAnnulled

DzhankoiAnnulled