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Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

16 16 comments

Metaculus Cup Summer 2025

1 comment

58 forecasters

Will Nicholas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before January 1, 2026?

5%chance

2% this week

4 comments

33 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance

10% this week

32 comments

95 forecasters

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

IranAnnulled

LebanonAnnulled

Saudi ArabiaAnnulled

condition

31 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Contributed by the Sudan Community community.

0 comments

3 forecasters

Will any of Sudan's seven neighboring countries officially announce a complete border closure with Sudan citing conflict spillover or security concerns before July 1, 2026?

22%chance

40 comments

26 forecasters

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

PolandAmbiguous

LatviaAmbiguous

LithuaniaAmbiguous

5 comments

38 forecasters

Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?

45%chance

10% this week

18 comments

53 forecasters

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

resultNo

52 comments

29 forecasters

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

resultNo

Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

Will Nicholas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before January 1, 2026?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

US is a NATO Member until 2029?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Will any of Sudan's seven neighboring countries officially announce a complete border closure with Sudan citing conflict spillover or security concerns before July 1, 2026?

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

Will Nicholas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before January 1, 2026?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

US is a NATO Member until 2029?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Will any of Sudan's seven neighboring countries officially announce a complete border closure with Sudan citing conflict spillover or security concerns before July 1, 2026?

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?