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Will China publicly sell domestic AI accelerators to Russia by 2030?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 2 days

3 comments

1 forecaster

Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 2 days

0 comments

96 forecasters

How many countries from the list below will establish space agencies or dedicated space programs specifically focused on addressing climate change and sustainable development before 2026?

Latest estimate

2.44 countries

This question is closed for forecasting.

5 comments

Will Russia have an AI data center with >10,000 H100e before 2027?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 4 days

9 comments

53 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

5%chance

2% today

Key Factors

condition

13 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

0 comments

92 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment

24 forecasters

Will the United States invade Venezuela before January 20, 2029?

28%chance

5% this week

0 comments

104 forecasters

Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before January 1, 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

32 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%

Google Cloud12%

Amazon Web Services11%

Will China publicly sell domestic AI accelerators to Russia by 2030?

Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?

How many countries from the list below will establish space agencies or dedicated space programs specifically focused on addressing climate change and sustainable development before 2026?

Will Russia have an AI data center with >10,000 H100e before 2027?

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will the United States invade Venezuela before January 20, 2029?

Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before January 1, 2026?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

Will China publicly sell domestic AI accelerators to Russia by 2030?

Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?

How many countries from the list below will establish space agencies or dedicated space programs specifically focused on addressing climate change and sustainable development before 2026?

Will Russia have an AI data center with >10,000 H100e before 2027?

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will the United States invade Venezuela before January 20, 2029?

Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before January 1, 2026?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?