84 comments
81 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question "Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?"?
resultYes
0 comments
84 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 9.10% on 2025-09-27 for the Metaculus question "Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?"?
35%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
75 comments
74 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 17.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question "Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?"?
resultNo
3 comments
54 forecasters
Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before November 1, 2025?
17%chance
23% this week
4 comments
32 forecasters
Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?
30%chance
18% this week
0 comments
84 forecasters
Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?
15%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
14 comments
85 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind13%
Microsoft5%
xAI3%
1 comment
56 forecasters
Will Nicholas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before January 1, 2026?
5%chance
5% this week