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Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

4
1010 comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025
0 comments
84 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 9.10% on 2025-09-27 for the Metaculus question "Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?"?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

75 comments
74 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 17.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question "Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?"?

resultNo
3 comments
56 forecasters

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before November 1, 2025?

17%chance
23% this week

Contributed by the Sudan Community community.

0 comments
2 forecasters

Will the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) maintain control of both Khartoum city center and el-Obeid in North Kordofan through December 31, 2025?

65%chance
4 comments
33 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance
15% this week
8 comments

Will Poland and Ukraine settle the Przewodów incident before 2024?

Annulled
24 comments
93 forecasters

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

10%chance
5% this week
1 comment
49 forecasters

Will Ukrainian forces secure control of the specified crossroads near Vilne and Kucheriv Yar by August 22, 2025, as indicated by ISW mapping or equivalent criteria?

resultNo
53 comments
50 forecasters

Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?

Annulled