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US Democracy Index

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Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

15 comments

37 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Current estimate

1860 deaths

3 comments

58 forecasters

Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?

7%chance

3% today

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment

31 forecasters

Will the United States invade Venezuela before January 20, 2029?

41%chance

13% this week

0 comments

107 forecasters

Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?

7%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

92 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

22 forecasters

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?

72%chance

5.3% this week

5 comments

35 forecasters

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before November 1, 2025?

resultNo

0 comments

107 forecasters

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?

18%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.