Will the U.S. and Iran return to war before December 2026?30% chance177 comments115115 forecasters30%chance
Will Ukraine have de facto control of Dobropillia, Donetsk on December 31, 2026?366 comments7070 forecasters%chance
Will Israel or the United States conduct a military strike on Iranian territory between October 29 and October 30, 2026?result: no308308 comments307307 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the US carry out sustained or high-intensity attacks against Iran in these years leading up to 2032?233 comments2323 forecasters
Will the United States resume its air campaign against Iran before December 1, 2026?99.9% chance11 comment55 forecasters99.9%chance
Will Russia and Ukraine both publicly confirm a mutual energy-infrastructure ceasefire agreement by October 3, 2026?result: no182182 comments182182 forecastersResolvedNo
Will NATO forces shoot down or destroy a Russian drone or aircraft over NATO territory between October 1 and October 2, 2026?result: no177177 comments182182 forecastersResolvedNo
Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2027?0.1% chance133 comments152152 forecasters0.1%chance
Will Israel Take Control of Gaza City before Jan 20, 2029?13.6% chance133 comments3232 forecasters13.6%chance
Which countries' intelligence services will be officially identified as recipients of information from former BND chief August Hanning before July 1, 2027?111 comment22 forecasters
Will Israel withdraw behind the original Yellow Line in Gaza before January 1, 2027?1% chance22 comments130130 forecasters1%chance
Will the United States detonate a nuclear weapon in Iran before December 1, 2026?10% chance11 comment55 forecasters10%chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050? → If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?111 comment11 forecaster
When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?23 Feb 2028 (03 May 2027 - 07 Apr 2029)49174174 comments410410 forecasters23 Feb 2028 (03 May 2027 - 07 Apr 2029)
Will the U.S. conduct a ground invasion of Iran before December 2026?2% chance22 comments66 forecasters2%chance
Will the Strait of Hormuz return to normal commercial traffic before December 1, 2026?10% chance0 comments1010 forecasters10%chance
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?1499 comments315315 forecasters
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026? → Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?111 comment66 forecasters