Will Saudi Arabia conduct a direct military strike against Iran before June 1, 2026?result: yes355 comments8383 forecastersResolvedYes
How many confirmed deaths will be attributed to the US-Israel-Iran war over the course of 2026?66 comments22 forecasters
Will China settle its South China Sea maritime boundary dispute with any other state before 2031?33.3% chance21111 comments2929 forecasters33.3%chance
Will the US and Iran agree to a ceasefire before May 2026?result: yes127127 comments121121 forecastersResolvedYes
If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?3% chance63232 comments138138 forecasters3%chance
How many distinct NATO member states will formally request Article 4 consultations citing the 2026 Iran conflict before May 1, 2026?0 member states (0 - 2)111111 comments112112 forecasters0 member states (0 - 2)
Will any single oil spill larger than 50,000 barrels occur in the Persian Gulf before May 1, 2026?result: no123123 comments123123 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?result: yes143535 comments108108 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the United States and Iran publicly agree to a formal ceasefire that both sides acknowledge before May 1, 2026?result: no110110 comments111111 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?4% chance161717 comments224224 forecasters4%chance
Will the Republic of Ireland abandon the policy of military neutrality before 2030?25% chance388 comments3636 forecasters25%chance
Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?result: no268484 comments286286 forecastersResolvedNo
Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?result: no113333 comments129129 forecastersResolvedNo
Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024?result: yes766 comments6666 forecastersResolvedYes
What will be the Global Peace Index score for Iran in 2026?2.96 (2.83 - 3.09)22020 comments110110 forecasters2.96 (2.83 - 3.09)
When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?16 Sep 2027 (27 Jan 2027 - 19 Sep 2028)47171171 comments390390 forecasters16 Sep 2027 (27 Jan 2027 - 19 Sep 2028)
Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?result: no122727 comments210210 forecastersResolvedNo
If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?152020 comments3333 forecasters
When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?81616 comments1515 forecasters