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US Democracy Index

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Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

22 comments

43 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Current estimate

>2193 deaths

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will there be another deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more fatalities, before 2026?

30%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

86 forecasters

Will NATO’s North Atlantic Council publish an official statement between 15 Oct and 31 Dec 2025 explicitly citing a Russian violation of Allied airspace?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

3 comments

63 forecasters

Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?

7%chance

4% this week

82 comments

2.1k forecasters

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

6%chance

condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

12%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

11%

1 1 comment

5 forecasters

1 comment

33 forecasters

Will the United States invade Venezuela before January 20, 2029?

40%chance

0 comments

25 forecasters

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?

76%chance

9.3% this week