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US Democracy Index

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Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

3 comments

58 forecasters

Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?

8%chance

125 comments

283 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

47%chance

Key Factors

1 comment

31 forecasters

Will the United States invade Venezuela before January 20, 2029?

41%chance

16% this week

0 comments

107 forecasters

Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?

7%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

92 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

22 forecasters

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?

72%chance

5.3% this week

12 comments

93 forecasters

Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in ⩾20 deaths between October 1 and December 15, 2025?

3%chance

Key Factors

0 comments

97 forecasters

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

6 comments

46 forecasters

If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will the United States respond with military forces?

78%chance

8% this week