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US Democracy Index

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Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

50%chance

15% this week

Key Factors

1 comment

23 forecasters

Will the United States invade Venezuela before January 20, 2029?

25%chance

8% this week

0 comments

92 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

107 forecasters

Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?

7%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

16 forecasters

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?

66.7%chance

10.7% this week

0 comments

2 forecasters

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

17.1%chance

17% this week

3 comments

12 forecasters

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

50%chance

17% this week

Key Factors

5 comments

100 forecasters

Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?

resultNo

11 comments

82 forecasters

Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in ⩾20 deaths between October 1 and December 15, 2025?

4%chance

3.2% this week

Key Factors

0 comments

97 forecasters

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.