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US Democracy Index

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Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will there be another deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more fatalities, before 2026?

30%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

82 comments

2.1k forecasters

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

6%chance

0 comments

25 forecasters

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?

76%chance

9.3% this week

0 comments

107 forecasters

Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?

7%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

19%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

14%

1 1 comment

5 forecasters

3 comments

16 forecasters

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

37%chance

14% this week

Key Factors

18 comments

190 forecasters

Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?

resultNo

46 comments

29 forecasters

Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?

resultNo

0 comments

97 forecasters

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.