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5 comments
35 forecasters

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before November 1, 2025?

resultNo
0 comments
107 forecasters

Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?

7%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

condition

China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?

13 forecasters
if yes
if no

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

50%
50%

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

19%
19%
1
0 comments
13
13 forecasters
The Taiwan Tinderbox
14 comments
31 forecasters

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

0 comments
2 forecasters

By 2031, will at least two new significant regulatory actions restricting China's access to advanced semiconductor technology be implemented?

80%chance
20% this week
0 comments
15 forecasters

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?

62%chance
12% this week
3 comments
41 forecasters

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Current estimate
61.3%

Key Factors

0 comments
2 forecasters

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

17.1%chance
17% this week
11 comments
82 forecasters

Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in ⩾20 deaths between October 1 and December 15, 2025?

4.7%chance
4.3% this week

Key Factors

0 comments
100 forecasters

Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.