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5
comments
35
forecasters
Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before November 1, 2025?
result
No
0
comments
107
forecasters
Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?
7%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
condition
China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?
13
forecasters
if yes
if no
Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)
50%
50%
Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)
19%
19%
1
0
comments
13
13
forecasters
The Taiwan Tinderbox
14
comments
31
forecasters
On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?
0
comments
2
forecasters
By 2031, will at least two new significant regulatory actions restricting China's access to advanced semiconductor technology be implemented?
80%
chance
20%
this week
0
comments
15
forecasters
Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?
62%
chance
12%
this week
3
comments
41
forecasters
What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?
Current estimate
61.3%
Key Factors
New lithium reserve found in McDermitt Caldera but typically takes years to develop
0
comments
2
forecasters
By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?
17.1%
chance
17%
this week
11
comments
82
forecasters
Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in ⩾20 deaths between October 1 and December 15, 2025?
4.7%
chance
4.3%
this week
Key Factors
Trump to oversee peace deal at ASEAN summit
Ceasefire and Diplomatic Engagement
Domestic Political Pressures and Nationalism
0
comments
100
forecasters
Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?
35%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
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