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Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: July 2026 Updates

6

Will the United States' share of major arms exports decrease by more than 15% between 2024 and 2030?

40% chance

4

4 forecasters

40%chance

How many deaths from Operation Epic Fury will the U.S. government officially report on August 31, 2026?

24 total deaths (17 - 34)

4

4 forecasters

24 total deaths

(17 - 34)

Will the U.S. Senate pass an Iran war powers resolution before August 1, 2026?

result: yes

23

23 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Will transit calls in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait be cut by half or more on August 31, 2026 compared to July 2026?

50% chance

2

2 forecasters

50%chance

Will the United States launch an attack against JNIM in Mali during August 2026?

41

41 forecasters

%chance

Will a new round of direct in-person Ukraine-Russia peace talks take place between July 11 and July 24, 2026?

result: no

135 135 comments

133

133 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will the Lebanese Armed Forces deploy to the initial two pilot zones in southern Lebanon before September 2026?

result: yes

5

101

101 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Will a US–Iran ceasefire be in effect on July 23, 2026?

result: no

118 118 comments

120

120 forecasters

ResolvedNo

What will happen in the Russia–Ukraine war between July 20 and September 1, 2026?

4

185

185 forecasters

When will an autonomous machine governor for Force generation be fielded by a G-20 state?

>Jan 2050 (>Jan 2050 - >Jan 2050)

10

10 forecasters

>Jan 2050

(>Jan 2050 - >Jan 2050)

When will an autonomous machine orchestrator for Command and control be fielded by a G-20 state?

>Jan 2050 (>Jan 2050 - >Jan 2050)

10

10 forecasters

>Jan 2050

(>Jan 2050 - >Jan 2050)

When will an autonomous machine governor for Strategic signalling be fielded by a G-20 state?

>Jan 2050 (>Jan 2050 - >Jan 2050)

10

10 forecasters

>Jan 2050

(>Jan 2050 - >Jan 2050)

When will an autonomous machine governor for Escalation management be fielded by a G-20 state?

>Jan 2050 (Dec 2048 - >Jan 2050)

10

10 forecasters

>Jan 2050

(Dec 2048 - >Jan 2050)

What will be the highest-level status of Russia–Ukraine hostilities and diplomacy on August 8, 2026?

136

136 forecasters

Will any personnel of the International Stabilization Force be deployed into Gaza before August 25, 2026?

6

6 forecasters

%chance

When will an autonomous machine governor for Alliance management be fielded by a G-20 state?

>Jan 2050 (>Jan 2050 - >Jan 2050)

10

10 forecasters

>Jan 2050

(>Jan 2050 - >Jan 2050)

When will an autonomous machine orchestrator for Information effects be fielded by a G-20 state?

Jun 2036 (Apr 2032 - Aug 2043)

10

10 forecasters

Jun 2036

(Apr 2032 - Aug 2043)

Respiratory Outlook July Update: Screwworm continues US spread as Ebola outbreak surges in DRC

4

When will an autonomous machine orchestrator for Manoeuvre, fire, and effects be fielded by a G-20 state?

Aug 2039 (Apr 2034 - Nov 2047)

10

10 forecasters

Aug 2039

(Apr 2034 - Nov 2047)

When will an autonomous machine combatant in the Cyber domain be fielded by a G-20 state?

01 Apr 2028 (07 May 2027 - 02 Sep 2029)

10

10 forecasters

01 Apr 2028

(07 May 2027 - 02 Sep 2029)

When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?

11

17

17 forecasters