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0 comments
99 forecasters

Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
83 forecasters

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Not before 202683.4%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 202513.6%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 20251%

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
106 forecasters

Will there be major civil unrest or martial law in the Philippines in 2025?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
101 forecasters

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Less than 30 days36.3%
30 days24.9%
31-60 days18.1%

This question is closed for forecasting.

4 comments
15 forecasters

Will the United States attack Nigeria before 2027?

Current estimate
Revealed in 5 hours
3 comments
1 forecaster

Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?

Current estimate
Revealed in 3 days
9 comments
51 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

7%chance
3% today

Key Factors

118 comments
271 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

50%chance
15% this week

Key Factors

0 comments
108 forecasters

Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
108 forecasters

Will the Strait of Hormuz be closed before 2026?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.