Will Russia and Ukraine sign a formal written peace or ceasefire agreement before September 10, 2026?14% chance0 comments8989 forecasters14%chance
Will US President Donald J. Trump visit any of these countries before January 20, 2029?2323 comments8888 forecasters
Will a Colombian presidential candidate or campaign staffer be killed in a politically motivated attack between June 1 and June 13, 2026?20% chance0 comments9999 forecasters20%chance
Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026?8% chance0 comments115115 forecasters8%chance
Will there be a documented case of civil unrest (e.g., a strike or protest) with over 1,000,000 participants globally, citing AI impacts (e.g., labor displacement) as a primary grievance by 2030?50% chance0 comments11 forecaster50%chance
Will the United States and Iran sign a formal agreement to end hostilities by May 31, 2026?result: no11 comment7373 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
How will the countries that participated in the 2025 International Mathematical Olympiad rank in the 2026 IMO?155 comments77 forecasters
Will the ceasefire between the U.S. and Yemen’s Houthis mediated by Oman be broken before June 2026?result: no266 comments4343 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026?15% chance0 comments99 forecasters15%chance
What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments1616 forecasters
Will a comprehensive Russia–Ukraine ceasefire be officially in effect on June 14, 2026?5.5% chance0 comments9393 forecasters5.5%chance
Will Saudi Arabia conduct a direct military strike against Iran before June 1, 2026?result: yes355 comments8383 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the Israel–Lebanon "security track" military-delegation meeting take place at the Pentagon before May 31, 2026?result: yes22 comments9494 forecastersResolvedYes
[PRACTICE] Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?1.7% chance-1288288 comments156156 forecasters1.7%chance
How many confirmed deaths will be attributed to the US-Israel-Iran war over the course of 2026?66 comments22 forecasters
Will the U.S. Congress limit presidential war powers before January 3, 2029, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments2828 forecasters
Will the U.S. Senate pass an Iran war powers resolution before August 1, 2026?0 comments22 forecasters%chance
Will the US and Iran agree to a ceasefire before May 2026?result: yes15173173 comments490490 forecastersResolvedYes
How many HEMP attacks will occur by 2030, if at least one does?3 attacks (1.63 - 7.03)20 comments1414 forecasters3 attacks (1.63 - 7.03)
Will Israel invade Lebanon before October 1, 2024?15% chance35266266 comments329329 forecastersAmbiguous