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0 comments

Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?

Current estimate
Revealed in 5 days
0 comments
107 forecasters

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

94 comments
94 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 31.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?"?

resultYes
14 comments
31 forecasters

On how many days in the following years will China carry out โ€œreactionaryโ€ air incursions into Taiwanโ€™s air defense identification zone?

0 comments
16 forecasters

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?

71%chance
11% this week
0 comments
2 forecasters

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

17.1%chance
17% this week
3 comments
12 forecasters

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

50%chance
17% this week

Key Factors

condition

Customs Quarantine Taiwan (2030)

13 forecasters
if yes
if no

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

22%
22%

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

13%
13%
1
0 comments
13
13 forecasters
The Taiwan Tinderbox

Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

17
66 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
85 comments
83 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-10-17 for the Metaculus question "Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?"?

resultYes