1 comment
7 forecasters
Will two or more U.S. state or federal judges or legislators be victims of murder or attempted murder by non-state actors in the following years?
0 comments
2 forecasters
Will U.S. federal military forces be deployed for non-routine domestic missions in three or more large metro areas in the following years?
4 comments
31 forecasters
Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?
30%chance
18% this week
14 comments
84 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind20%
Microsoft5%
xAI4%
5 comments
38 forecasters
Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?
35%chance
25% this week
1 comment
50 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 1.10% on 2025-08-27 for the Metaculus question 'Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?'?
resultYes
19 comments
232 forecasters
Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?
resultNo
Contributed by the Sudan Community community.
0 comments
3 forecasters
Will any of Sudan's seven neighboring countries officially announce a complete border closure with Sudan citing conflict spillover or security concerns before July 1, 2026?
22%chance