Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?22% chance332727 comments229229 forecasters22%chance
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?39% chance602323 comments423423 forecasters39%chance
By the year 2100, will any jurisdiction enforce requirements for all births to be genetically engineered?51% chance173838 comments5858 forecasters51%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?7% chance1322 comments166166 forecasters7%chance
Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?result: no241010 comments100100 forecastersResolvedNo
Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?50% chance655 comments8888 forecasters50%chance
Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?result: no899 comments7676 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a senolytic therapy for a companion animal be commercially available before one for humans?70% chance577 comments4040 forecasters70%chance
Drake's Equation 5th Parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?9.46×10⁻⁴% (6.61×10⁻⁸ - 0.087)281010 comments164164 forecasters9.46×10⁻⁴% (6.61×10⁻⁸ - 0.087)
Is the human being, as opposed to everything else in nature, an exception to causality? Rephrased: Is the entire universe deterministic?966 comments