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Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

28%chance

6 comments

16 forecasters

What percentage of their January 2024 search interest will these longevity interventions retain in January 2030?

Epigenetic reprogramming130

Senolytics93

Ozempic82.9

Contributed by the Foresight Institute community.

1 comment

16 forecasters

Before January 1, 2032, will an FDA-approved therapeutic intervention demonstrate a statistically significant reversal of at least 10 years in biological age in humans?

10%chance

10% this week

condition

16 forecasters

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

4 comments

13 forecasters

How many deaths from Tuberculosis will occur globally in the following years?

7 comments

16 forecasters

When will the first person reach 150 years of age?

Current estimate

2145

16 comments

44 forecasters

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

21%chance

8% this week

8 comments

13 forecasters

When will the next person reach 120 years of age?

Current estimate

Jan 2038

1 comment

9 forecasters

When will a digital model of the C. elegans nervous system reproduce the organism’s full behavioral repertoire with at least 90% accuracy?

Current estimate

2060 Year

condition

CTs AI Admin Disempowerment Before 2030

17 forecasters

if yes

if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

26%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

1 1 comment

17 forecasters

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

What percentage of their January 2024 search interest will these longevity interventions retain in January 2030?

Before January 1, 2032, will an FDA-approved therapeutic intervention demonstrate a statistically significant reversal of at least 10 years in biological age in humans?

CTs Policy Response After AI Catastrophe

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

How many deaths from Tuberculosis will occur globally in the following years?

When will the first person reach 150 years of age?

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

When will the next person reach 120 years of age?

When will a digital model of the C. elegans nervous system reproduce the organism’s full behavioral repertoire with at least 90% accuracy?

CTs AI Admin Disempowerment Before 2030

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

What percentage of their January 2024 search interest will these longevity interventions retain in January 2030?

Before January 1, 2032, will an FDA-approved therapeutic intervention demonstrate a statistically significant reversal of at least 10 years in biological age in humans?

CTs Policy Response After AI Catastrophe

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

How many deaths from Tuberculosis will occur globally in the following years?

When will the first person reach 150 years of age?

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

When will the next person reach 120 years of age?

When will a digital model of the C. elegans nervous system reproduce the organism’s full behavioral repertoire with at least 90% accuracy?

CTs AI Admin Disempowerment Before 2030

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100