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US Democracy Index

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What will be the total awarded grand-prize sum for XPRIZE Healthspan?

$052.4%

$61 million – 10 Year Functional Improvement18.8%

$71 million – 15 Year Functional Improvement14.9%

3 comments

5 forecasters

How many doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?

Engineering10k

Physics548

Microbiology and immunology543

condition

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

4 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

90%

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

4 4 comments

4 forecasters

253 comments

1.6k forecasters

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

25%chance

Key Factors

374 comments

1.7k forecasters

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

1%chance

Key Factors

21 comments

305 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30%chance

44 comments

434 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28%chance

9 comments

19 forecasters

When will the first person reach 150 years of age?

Current estimate

2150

2 comments

12 forecasters

When will pig-to-human xenotransplantation become a routine medical procedure?

Current estimate

Dec 2043

81 comments

625 forecasters

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40%chance