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US Democracy Index

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What is the animal welfare benefit of having donated $100k in 2026 to fund the development of cultured meat relative to having donated the same amount to The Humane League's corporate campaigns?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 4 days

8 comments

23 forecasters

What will China's total population be in these years?

257 comments

1.6k forecasters

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

25%chance

Key Factors

3 comments

11 forecasters

When will a digital model of the C. elegans nervous system reproduce the organism’s full behavioral repertoire with at least 90% accuracy?

Current estimate

2051 Year

84 comments

629 forecasters

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40%chance

2 comments

12 forecasters

Will the Humani Bedford Old Baobab die by 2027?

50%chance

12.8% this week

condition

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

4 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

90%

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

4 4 comments

4 forecasters

44 comments

436 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

30%chance

21 comments

310 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30%chance

60 comments

65 forecasters

Will Jeff Bezos undertake a "seismic" development in longevity before September 1st 2021?

Ambiguous