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82
comments
626
forecasters
Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?
40%
chance
3
comments
5
forecasters
How many doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?
Engineering
4575
Physics
548
Microbiology and immunology
543
9 others
254
comments
1.6k
forecasters
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
25%
chance
Key Factors
Alzheimer's hampers developments in radical life extension
Life expectancy for the longest-lived populations has been growing more or less linearly since the 1840s.
Genetics restricts lifespan for large population subset
44
comments
436
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
30%
chance
21
comments
309
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%
chance
condition
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
4
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
90%
90%
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
5%
5%
4
4
comments
4
4
forecasters
10
comments
22
forecasters
Five years after AGI, how many animals will be slaughtered in factory farms?
Current estimate
97.4B billion animals
6
comments
33
forecasters
What will be the world population in the following years?
374
comments
1.7k
forecasters
Will humans go extinct before 2100?
1%
chance
Key Factors
Possibility of AI smarter than humans, with goal of wiping out humans
17
comments
65
forecasters
How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?
community
47.1
result
21.4
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