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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
82 comments
626 forecasters

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40%chance
3 comments
5 forecasters

How many doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?

Engineering4575
Physics548
Microbiology and immunology543
254 comments
1.6k forecasters

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

25%chance

Key Factors

44 comments
436 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

30%chance
21 comments
309 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30%chance
condition

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

4 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

90%
90%

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

5%
5%
44 comments
4
4 forecasters
10 comments
22 forecasters

Five years after AGI, how many animals will be slaughtered in factory farms?

Current estimate
97.4B billion animals
6 comments
33 forecasters

What will be the world population in the following years?

374 comments
1.7k forecasters

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

1%chance

Key Factors

17 comments
65 forecasters

How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?

community
47.1
result
21.4