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US Democracy Index

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What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years?

1 comment

18 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%

Naura35%

AMEC30%

4 comments

12 forecasters

Will renewable energy exceed 55% of global electricity generation before 2030, according to Our World in Data?

4%chance

12 comments

62 forecasters

When will fossil fuels make up less than 50% of global primary energy consumption?

Current estimate

Feb 2051

1 comment

13 forecasters

Will the global methane output from the energy sector be at least 145 Mt for the year 2025?

61%chance

1 comment

28 forecasters

Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2050?

66%chance

2 comments

38 forecasters

Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?

30%chance

5% this week

0 comments

11 forecasters

Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2100?

18%chance

7 comments

17 forecasters

Will renewable energy have a higher energy production share in the US than combined fossil fuels and nuclear in any month before 2050?

80%chance

7 comments

31 forecasters

What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years?

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

Will renewable energy exceed 55% of global electricity generation before 2030, according to Our World in Data?

When will fossil fuels make up less than 50% of global primary energy consumption?

Will the global methane output from the energy sector be at least 145 Mt for the year 2025?

Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2050?

Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?

Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2100?

Will renewable energy have a higher energy production share in the US than combined fossil fuels and nuclear in any month before 2050?

What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years?

What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years?

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

Will renewable energy exceed 55% of global electricity generation before 2030, according to Our World in Data?

When will fossil fuels make up less than 50% of global primary energy consumption?

Will the global methane output from the energy sector be at least 145 Mt for the year 2025?

Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2050?

Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?

Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2100?

Will renewable energy have a higher energy production share in the US than combined fossil fuels and nuclear in any month before 2050?

What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years?