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US Democracy Index

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Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?

25%chance

5% this week

9 comments

26 forecasters

Will >1% of global primary aluminum be produced by carbon-free technology before 2030?

33.3%chance

9.9% this week

1 comment

17 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%

Naura35%

AMEC30%

1 comment

7 forecasters

What will be the maximum monthly US crude oil production in the Gulf from 2025 to 2040?

Current estimate

2562 kbd

4 comments

13 forecasters

Will renewable energy exceed 55% of global electricity generation before 2030, according to Our World in Data?

4%chance

condition

5 forecasters

1 comment

28 forecasters

Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2050?

66%chance

16 comments

28 forecasters

What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020?

0 comments

11 forecasters

Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2100?

18%chance

4 comments

67 forecasters

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?

16%chance

Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?

Will >1% of global primary aluminum be produced by carbon-free technology before 2030?

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

What will be the maximum monthly US crude oil production in the Gulf from 2025 to 2040?

Will renewable energy exceed 55% of global electricity generation before 2030, according to Our World in Data?

Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2050?

What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020?

Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2100?

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?

Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?

Will >1% of global primary aluminum be produced by carbon-free technology before 2030?

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

What will be the maximum monthly US crude oil production in the Gulf from 2025 to 2040?

Will renewable energy exceed 55% of global electricity generation before 2030, according to Our World in Data?

Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2050?

What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020?

Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2100?

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?