Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

❓

When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?

Current estimate

May 2043

39 comments

76 forecasters

When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?

Current estimate

Oct 2046

10 comments

95 forecasters

When will nuclear fusion provide at least 0.1% of the world's primary energy?

Current estimate

Apr 2052

23 comments

153 forecasters

When will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world's primary energy?

Current estimate

2077

0 comments

23 forecasters

Will the U.S. "Microgrid as a Service" (MaaS) market exceed $1.5 billion before 2030?

65%chance

10% this week

1 comment

17 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%

Naura31%

AMEC30%

16 comments

28 forecasters

What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020?

6 comments

2 forecasters

Which of the following California oil refineries will first announce the intent to idle, restructure, or cease operations before 2028?

Valero (Wilmington)63.5%

PBF Energy (Martinez)8.5%

PBF Energy (Torrance)8.5%

4 comments

66 forecasters

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?

16%chance

5 comments

11 forecasters

What will net U.S. geothermal electricity production be in the year 2026, in GWh?

Current estimate

17.4k GWh