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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?

>125 billion $ (>125 - >125)

14
7575 comments
145
145 forecasters
>125 billion $
(>125 - >125)

What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?

1969 B USD (794 - 3637)

21
4545 comments
103
103 forecasters
1969 B USD
(794 - 3637)

What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?

6.06 (3.47 - 9.08)

1
1414 comments
17
17 forecasters
6.06
(3.47 - 9.08)

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

7
11 comment
24
24 forecasters

When will the following space agencies launch a crewed mission?

9
1717 comments
45
45 forecasters

Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?

23
33 comments
61
61 forecasters

When will a space-based data center first become operational?

Jun 2037 (Jun 2032 - May 2046)

3
1616 comments
17
17 forecasters
Jun 2037
(Jun 2032 - May 2046)

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40% chance

85
8484 comments
645
645 forecasters
40%chance

What will be the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories?

5
22 comments
34
34 forecasters

Will a government space agency commence a crewed mission outside of the Earth-Moon system before 2030?

1% chance

9
33 comments
126
126 forecasters
1%chance

How many of the following space exploration activities will China conduct before 2030?

8
88 comments
50
50 forecasters

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

10
11 comment
26
26 forecasters

How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years?

15
1919 comments
171
171 forecasters

What will be the total quantity of space debris orbiting earth in each year?

7
99 comments
36
36 forecasters

Will a proof-of-concept experiment for space-based carbon capture be successfully completed before 2031?

10% chance

2
0 comments
25
25 forecasters
10%chance

When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?

Aug 2031 (10 Jan 2028 - Feb 2040)

8
44 comments
23
23 forecasters
Aug 2031
(10 Jan 2028 - Feb 2040)

To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?

result: no

38
1616 comments
170
170 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Will space-based technology enable effective enforcement of the UN High Seas Treaty to reduce marine pollution and protect marine ecosystems before 2027?

33% chance

5
0 comments
20
20 forecasters
33%chance

By 2030, will at least 1% of Gallup respondents report the most important problem facing the US is something relating to space?

3.3% chance

11
99 comments
50
50 forecasters
3.3%chance

When will the 1,000th person reach space?

Nov 2032 (09 Aug 2029 - Jun 2038)

25
4141 comments
182
182 forecasters
Nov 2032
(09 Aug 2029 - Jun 2038)

When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?

02 Nov 2019 (16 Mar 2019 - 26 Oct 2020)

32
1616 comments
184
184 forecasters
02 Nov 2019
(16 Mar 2019 - 26 Oct 2020)

When will a free flying commercial space station become operational?

14 Sep 2030 (28 Aug 2028 - May 2033)

14
1414 comments
43
43 forecasters
14 Sep 2030
(28 Aug 2028 - May 2033)

Will an international organization release a report estimating that space-based technologies have contributed to a 5% or greater increase in agricultural yields in any country before 2031?

75% chance

11 comment
18
18 forecasters
75%chance

Will space-based technologies facilitate the creation of an effective global system for tracking and mitigating illegal wildlife trade before 2031?

55% chance

2
0 comments
12
12 forecasters
55%chance