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US Democracy Index

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When will a space-based data center first become operational?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 14 hours

Key Factors

84 comments

628 forecasters

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40%chance

1 comment

18 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%

Naura35%

AMEC30%

0 comments

21 forecasters

Will a proof-of-concept experiment for space-based carbon capture be successfully completed before 2031?

2%chance

3% this week

83 comments

115 forecasters

When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?

17 comments

37 forecasters

When will the following space agencies launch a crewed mission?

5 comments

12 forecasters

What will be Arianespace's revenue (2021 EUR) in 2025?

Current estimate

1.24B €

75 comments

141 forecasters

What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?

Current estimate

>125 billion $

8 comments

46 forecasters

How many of the following space exploration activities will China conduct before 2030?

Crewed spaceflight24.4

Space station visits19.2

Lunar exploration4.85

1 comment

25 forecasters

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

Conventional90.2%

Air-breathing2.1%

Thermal rockets1.2%