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US Democracy Index

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Will an international organization release a report estimating that space-based technologies have contributed to a 5% or greater increase in agricultural yields in any country before 2031?

49%chance

16% this week

11 comments

52 forecasters

How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years?

1 comment

22 forecasters

Before January 1, 2030 will any public or private space company announce plans to reach "Oumuamua"?

2%chance

1.8% this week

1 comment

17 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%

Naura35%

AMEC30%

75 comments

140 forecasters

What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?

Current estimate

>125 billion $

83 comments

115 forecasters

When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?

15 comments

165 forecasters

How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years?

2 comments

59 forecasters

Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?

SpaceX65%

NASA25%

CNSA15%

14 comments

17 forecasters

What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?

community

6.06

result

2.756

11 comments

35 forecasters

When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?

Current estimate

2084