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1 comment
32 forecasters

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?

81%chance
6% this week

Key Factors

0 comments
26 forecasters

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Kim Davis v. David Ermold et al before January 15, 2026?

35%chance
8 comments
62 forecasters

Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?

1%chance
7 comments
6 forecasters

When will the U.S. Solicitor General file a CVSG brief in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell?

Current estimate
12 Dec 2025
6 comments
8 forecasters

If the U.S. Solicitor General files a CVSG brief in Monsanto v. Durnell, what will the recommendation be?

Grant certiorari79.8%
Deny certiorari15.2%
Other recommendation5%
4 comments
115 forecasters

Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?

52%chance
33 comments
30 forecasters

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell before January 15, 2026?

50%chance
2 comments
46 forecasters

Will New York Times v. Sullivan no longer be good law in the following years?

12 comments
18 forecasters

If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, will it rule in favor of Monsanto?

82%chance
17 comments
12 forecasters

If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, when will it be granted?

Current estimate
18 Dec 2025