Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

🗳️

US Democracy Index

❓

Will the NY Supreme Court (NY County) issue a written order adjudicating any part of the parties’ May 2025 summary judgment motions in Smartmatic v. Fox between Oct 15 and Dec 31, 2025?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment

36 forecasters

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana’s two majority-Black districts, restoring a GOP-leaning map?

81%chance

Key Factors

4 comments

116 forecasters

Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?

55%chance

14 comments

19 forecasters

Before 2027, will a federal court of appeals overturn a pre-Loper Bright decision that relied on Chevron deference, citing the Supreme Court’s ruling in Loper Bright as the primary reason?

75%chance

5% this week

17 comments

12 forecasters

If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, when will it be granted?

Current estimate

26 Dec 2025

7 comments

6 forecasters

When will the U.S. Solicitor General file a CVSG brief in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell?

Current estimate

14 Dec 2025

6 comments

8 forecasters

If the U.S. Solicitor General files a CVSG brief in Monsanto v. Durnell, what will the recommendation be?

Grant certiorari79.8%

Deny certiorari15.2%

Other recommendation5%

11 comments

15 forecasters

Will any court sentence Luigi Mangione to death before 2030?

15%chance

33 comments

30 forecasters

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell before January 15, 2026?

50%chance

2 comments

11 forecasters

Will the NY Supreme Court (NY County) issue a written order adjudicating any part of the parties’ May 2025 summary judgment motions in Smartmatic v. Fox between Oct 15 and Dec 31, 2025?

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana’s two majority-Black districts, restoring a GOP-leaning map?

Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?

Before 2027, will a federal court of appeals overturn a pre-Loper Bright decision that relied on Chevron deference, citing the Supreme Court’s ruling in Loper Bright as the primary reason?

If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, when will it be granted?

When will the U.S. Solicitor General file a CVSG brief in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell?

If the U.S. Solicitor General files a CVSG brief in Monsanto v. Durnell, what will the recommendation be?

Will any court sentence Luigi Mangione to death before 2030?

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell before January 15, 2026?

Will New York Times v. Sullivan no longer be good law in the following years?

Will the NY Supreme Court (NY County) issue a written order adjudicating any part of the parties’ May 2025 summary judgment motions in Smartmatic v. Fox between Oct 15 and Dec 31, 2025?

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana’s two majority-Black districts, restoring a GOP-leaning map?

Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?

Before 2027, will a federal court of appeals overturn a pre-Loper Bright decision that relied on Chevron deference, citing the Supreme Court’s ruling in Loper Bright as the primary reason?

If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, when will it be granted?

When will the U.S. Solicitor General file a CVSG brief in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell?

If the U.S. Solicitor General files a CVSG brief in Monsanto v. Durnell, what will the recommendation be?

Will any court sentence Luigi Mangione to death before 2030?

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell before January 15, 2026?

Will New York Times v. Sullivan no longer be good law in the following years?