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1
comment
32
forecasters
In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?
81%
chance
6%
this week
Key Factors
Roberts and Kavanaugh's stance on race policies
Ambivalence in oral arguments by Roberts and Barrett
Alexander v. South Carolina NAACP (2024)
0
comments
26
forecasters
Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Kim Davis v. David Ermold et al before January 15, 2026?
35%
chance
8
comments
62
forecasters
Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?
1%
chance
7
comments
6
forecasters
When will the U.S. Solicitor General file a CVSG brief in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell?
Current estimate
12 Dec 2025
6
comments
8
forecasters
If the U.S. Solicitor General files a CVSG brief in Monsanto v. Durnell, what will the recommendation be?
Grant certiorari
79.8%
Deny certiorari
15.2%
Other recommendation
5%
4
comments
115
forecasters
Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?
52%
chance
33
comments
30
forecasters
Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell before January 15, 2026?
50%
chance
2
comments
46
forecasters
Will New York Times v. Sullivan no longer be good law in the following years?
12
comments
18
forecasters
If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, will it rule in favor of Monsanto?
82%
chance
17
comments
12
forecasters
If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, when will it be granted?
Current estimate
18 Dec 2025
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