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2 comments
7 forecasters

Will New York Times v. Sullivan no longer be good law in the following years?

11 comments
14 forecasters

Will any court sentence Luigi Mangione to death before 2030?

18%chance
3 comments
130 forecasters

Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?

3%chance
0 comments
19 forecasters

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Kim Davis v. David Ermold et al before January 15, 2026?

75%chance
22 comments
55 forecasters

What will be the outcome of the New York Times' copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

The case is settled56.1%
OpenAI & Microsoft Win23.5%
NYT Wins ≥$50 Million10.2%
8 comments
83 forecasters

Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?

9%chance
26 comments
31 forecasters

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell before January 15, 2026?

50%chance
8 comments
17 forecasters

If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, will it rule in favor of Monsanto?

80%chance
0 comments
5 forecasters

What will be the outcome of Disney and Universal's copyright lawsuit against Midjourney?

The case is settled33.2%
Other ruling23.3%
Disney/Universal win ≥$50m20.1%
13 comments
9 forecasters

If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, when will it be granted?

Current estimate
24 Oct 2025