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16
comments
95
forecasters
How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?
No 2025 ruling
64%
Mixed ruling
20%
Tariffs unlawful
8.1%
2 others
8%
Key Factors
Skepticism of justices in first hearing
1
comment
32
forecasters
In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?
80%
chance
5%
this week
Key Factors
Roberts and Kavanaugh's stance on race policies
Ambivalence in oral arguments by Roberts and Barrett
Alexander v. South Carolina NAACP (2024)
0
comments
26
forecasters
Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Kim Davis v. David Ermold et al before January 15, 2026?
35%
chance
22
comments
40
forecasters
What will be the outcome of the New York Times' copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?
The case is settled
49.6%
OpenAI & Microsoft Win
25.3%
NYT Wins ≥$50 Million
14.9%
2 others
10%
8
comments
62
forecasters
Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?
1%
chance
33
comments
30
forecasters
Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell before January 15, 2026?
50%
chance
2
comments
46
forecasters
Will New York Times v. Sullivan no longer be good law in the following years?
17
comments
12
forecasters
If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, when will it be granted?
Current estimate
18 Dec 2025
11
comments
15
forecasters
Will any court sentence Luigi Mangione to death before 2030?
15%
chance
12
comments
18
forecasters
If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, will it rule in favor of Monsanto?
82%
chance
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