Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?50% chance38101101 comments468468 forecasters50%chance
Will quantum effects be widely accepted as responsible for consciousness before 2075?6% chance23030 comments4444 forecasters6%chance
If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?19% chance1066 comments5454 forecastersAmbiguous