Question Feed | Metaculus

To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?

result: no

83

301

ResolvedNo

A NYT article this year that discusses aliens as a possible explanation for an astronomical phenomenon?

result: no

8

124

ResolvedNo

If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, where will it be first discovered?

16

114

More attention to potential evidence for a fifth fundamental force?

result: no

4

35

ResolvedNo

To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?

result: no

27

132

ResolvedNo

What will be the mass in eV of the next fundamental particle to be discovered?

532B eV (<100B - 144T)

8

26

532B eV

(<100B - 144T)

Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?

60% chance

29

206

60%chance

Transiting exoplanet within 5 parsecs by 2018?

result: no

6

79

ResolvedNo

Five years after AGI, will another spacecraft have overtaken Voyager 1 as the farthest spacecraft from Earth?

1% chance

6

47

1%chance

By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?

1% chance

5

50

1%chance

To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?

result: no

38

170

ResolvedNo

Will Planet Nine be discovered before September 30, 2024?

result: no

34

ResolvedNo

Five years after AGI, will quantum gravity be solved?

12% chance

8

51

12%chance

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

13% chance

3

16

13%chance

Before January 1, 2030 will any public or private space company announce plans to reach "Oumuamua"?

0.1% chance

6

27

0.1%chance

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1149 events (840 - 1807)

8

44

1149 events

(840 - 1807)

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

0.12 c (0.0156 - 0.351)

6

9

0.12 c

(0.0156 - 0.351)

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

193 c (1.33 - 125k)

9

4

193 c

(1.33 - 125k)

How close to Earth will the next 10 Interstellar Objects pass?

0.547 AU (0.311 - 1.1)

3

21

0.547 AU

(0.311 - 1.1)

How many interstellar objects will be identified by the Vera Rubin Observatory is its first two years of observations?

6.33 objects (1.55 - 7.14)

2

16

6.33 objects

(1.55 - 7.14)

Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?

70% chance

13

59

70%chance

Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?

53% chance

6

18

53%chance