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What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1043 events (729 - 1814)

8

46

46 forecasters

1043 events

(729 - 1814)

Five years after AGI, will quantum gravity be solved?

11% chance

7

52

52 forecasters

11%chance

If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, where will it be first discovered?

16

114

114 forecasters

Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?

60% chance

29

207

207 forecasters

60%chance

How many interstellar objects will be identified by the Vera Rubin Observatory is its first two years of observations?

6.33 objects (1.55 - 7.14)

2

16

16 forecasters

6.33 objects

(1.55 - 7.14)

Will Planet Nine be discovered before September 30, 2024?

result: no

34

34 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Five years after AGI, will another spacecraft have overtaken Voyager 1 as the farthest spacecraft from Earth?

1% chance

6

47

47 forecasters

1%chance

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

13% chance

3

16

16 forecasters

13%chance

Before January 1, 2030 will any public or private space company announce plans to reach "Oumuamua"?

0.1% chance

6

27

27 forecasters

0.1%chance

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

0.12 c (0.0156 - 0.351)

6

9

9 forecasters

0.12 c

(0.0156 - 0.351)

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

193 c (1.33 - 125k)

9

4

4 forecasters

193 c

(1.33 - 125k)

How close to Earth will the next 10 Interstellar Objects pass?

0.547 AU (0.311 - 1.1)

3

21

21 forecasters

0.547 AU

(0.311 - 1.1)

By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?

1% chance

5

51

51 forecasters

1%chance

To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?

result: no

38

170

170 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?

70% chance

13

59

59 forecasters

70%chance

Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?

53% chance

6

18

18 forecasters

53%chance

Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?

12% chance

19

133

133 forecasters

12%chance

To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?

result: no

83

301

301 forecasters

ResolvedNo

A NYT article this year that discusses aliens as a possible explanation for an astronomical phenomenon?

result: no

8

124

124 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will Stephen Wolfram, Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov receive the Nobel prize in physics before 2036?

1% chance

11

130

130 forecasters

1%chance

Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2021 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?

93% chance

12

77

77 forecasters

Ambiguous

Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?

99% chance

11

94

94 forecasters

99%chance