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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?

result: no

83
2424 comments
301
301 forecasters
ResolvedNo

A NYT article this year that discusses aliens as a possible explanation for an astronomical phenomenon?

result: no

8
1818 comments
124
124 forecasters
ResolvedNo

By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?

1% chance

5
0 comments
51
51 forecasters
1%chance

To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?

result: no

38
1616 comments
170
170 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?

53% chance

6
55 comments
18
18 forecasters
53%chance

Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?

99% chance

11
99 comments
94
94 forecasters
99%chance

Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?

38% chance

8
1010 comments
38
38 forecasters
38%chance

To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?

result: no

27
1414 comments
132
132 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Transiting exoplanet within 5 parsecs by 2018?

result: no

6
33 comments
79
79 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Life on the Icy Moons and Ocean Worlds of the Outer Solar System

15
11 comment

Space Sector ‘Greenification’

10
11 comment

The ʻOumuamua Paradox and the Nature of Interstellar Objects

12
22 comments

Spacecraft Launchers and the Launcher Market

12
0 comments

Space Debris and the Kessler Syndrome

8
11 comment

The Future of Human Spaceflight

10
0 comments

Our Life Underneath a Chaotic Orbital Environment: The Relationship Between Space Debris and Space Utilization

11
0 comments

Private Citizen Space Travel: Participation, Place, and Price

8
0 comments

Take the Research Impact Challenge

0 comments