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12
comments
110
forecasters
Will quantized gravity soon be tested in the lab?
result
No
8
comments
92
forecasters
Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2030?
0.6%
chance
8
comments
16
forecasters
What will be the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor before the given years?
10
comments
45
forecasters
Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025?
result
No
3
comments
46
forecasters
Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025?
result
No
condition
Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025
Resolved:
No
40
forecasters
if yes
if no
Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025?
5%
5%
Resolved:
Annulled
Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025?
0%
0%
Resolved:
No
5
2
2
comments
40
40
forecasters
Superconductor Frontiers
24
comments
161
forecasters
Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?
result
No
103
comments
492
forecasters
Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?
result
No
19
comments
111
forecasters
Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?
result
Yes
98
comments
417
forecasters
Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?
result
No
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