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8 comments
16 forecasters

What will be the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor before the given years?

3 comments
46 forecasters

Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025?

resultNo
24 comments
161 forecasters

Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?

resultNo
103 comments
492 forecasters

Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?

resultNo
19 comments
111 forecasters

Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?

resultYes
98 comments
417 forecasters

Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?

resultNo
1 comment
18 forecasters

When will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor first be used in a medical MRI?

Current estimate
>Dec 2039
8 comments
92 forecasters

Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2030?

0.6%chance
19 comments
125 forecasters

Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?

resultNo
15 comments
127 forecasters

Will Stephen Wolfram, Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov receive the Nobel prize in physics before 2036?

1%chance