What will be the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor before the given years?1088 comments1818 forecasters
Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025?result: no633 comments4646 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?result: no152424 comments161161 forecastersResolvedNo
Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?result: no57103103 comments492492 forecastersResolvedNo
Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?result: yes131919 comments111111 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?result: no539898 comments417417 forecastersResolvedNo
When will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor first be used in a medical MRI?>Dec 2039 (>Dec 2039 - >Dec 2039)611 comment2020 forecasters>Dec 2039 (>Dec 2039 - >Dec 2039)
Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2030?0.3% chance888 comments9595 forecasters0.3%chance
When will room-temperature and -pressure superconductivity be achieved? [QL]Nov 2058 (Apr 2046 - Jul 2071)0 comments33 forecastersNov 2058 (Apr 2046 - Jul 2071)
Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?result: no111919 comments125125 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a recent paper claiming a breakthrough in high-T superconductivity be published in Nature?result: no411 comment6666 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Stephen Wolfram, Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov receive the Nobel prize in physics before 2036?1% chance111515 comments129129 forecasters1%chance
Vacuum birefringence probably found near neutron stars: more research to come?result: yes877 comments3131 forecastersResolvedYes