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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

12
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
2 comments
54 forecasters

Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025?

30%chance
5% this week
82 comments
235 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes
Kamala Harris (D)result: No
Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled
20 comments
65 forecasters

Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election?

Angela Rayner25%
Keir Starmer23%
Andy Burnham15%
60 comments
317 forecasters

Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?

3%chance
25 comments
103 forecasters

Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?

1.5%chance

Forecast International Elections With Data Journalist Kiko Llaneras

11
33 comments

Forecast on Bryan Caplan's Bets in New Series

7
0 comments

2024 Election Hub Update

20
44 comments

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and (Sort Of) Love Nuclear Forecasting

21
11 comment
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