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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index
12
0
comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
2
comments
54
forecasters
Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025?
30%
chance
5%
this week
82
comments
235
forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump (R)
result:
Yes
Kamala Harris (D)
result:
No
Gavin Newsom (D)
Annulled
17 others
20
comments
65
forecasters
Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election?
Angela Rayner
25%
Keir Starmer
23%
Andy Burnham
15%
6 others
60
comments
317
forecasters
Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?
3%
chance
25
comments
103
forecasters
Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?
1.5%
chance
Forecast International Elections With Data Journalist Kiko Llaneras
11
3
3
comments
Forecast on Bryan Caplan's Bets in New Series
7
0
comments
2024 Election Hub Update
20
4
4
comments
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and (Sort Of) Love Nuclear Forecasting
21
1
1
comment
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