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82 comments
235 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes
Kamala Harris (D)result: No
Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled

Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

16
66 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
1 comment
11 forecasters

Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Jeannette Jara62%
José Antonio Kast31%
Evelyn Matthei9%
21 comments
93 forecasters

Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election?

Keir Starmer23%
Andy Burnham15%
Lisa Nandy10%
60 comments
318 forecasters

Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?

3%chance
25 comments
103 forecasters

Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?

1%chance

Forecast International Elections With Data Journalist Kiko Llaneras

11
33 comments

Forecast on Bryan Caplan's Bets in New Series

7
0 comments

2024 Election Hub Update

20
44 comments

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and (Sort Of) Love Nuclear Forecasting

21
11 comment
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