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The 2026 US Midterms Tracker is Live!

8
0 comments

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

19
8282 comments
235
235 forecasters

Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?

2% chance

25
6060 comments
321
321 forecasters
2%chance

Announcing the Metaculus Cup Summer 2026 With Dylan Matthews!

11
3333 comments

$10,000 Prize Pool for the U.S. Democracy Threat Index

23
2020 comments

Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?

1% chance

12
2525 comments
103
103 forecasters
1%chance

Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?

result: no

6
2323 comments
70
70 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Which anonymous administration figure authored the NYT editorial?

8
2020 comments

Future Perfect 2020 Series

7
55 comments

Future Perfect 2021 Series

7
11 comment

Public Figures: New Figure Suggestions

34
183183 comments

"Foot Voting" Coordination Efforts

17
66 comments

The Expansion of Executive War Powers

6
33 comments

Vox Future Perfect Predictions for 2022

8
55 comments

Erik Hoel & Claimed Public Figure Pages

6
0 comments

Scott Alexander's 2022 Predictions

15
0 comments

Competing Institutional Solutions to Housing Supply Restrictions

11
0 comments

[New Questions] Autocrat Public Figure Series

12
33 comments

Introducing Community Manager Evan Harper

21
66 comments

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and (Sort Of) Love Nuclear Forecasting

21
11 comment

2024 Election Hub Update

20
44 comments

Forecast on Bryan Caplan's Bets in New Series

7
0 comments

Metaculus on the election

0 comments

Forecast International Elections With Data Journalist Kiko Llaneras

11
22 comments