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5
comments
76
forecasters
Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?
5%
chance
2%
this week
Key Factors
German stance
Fractured parliament and weak government in France
U.S. nuclear umbrella uncertainty
2
comments
34
forecasters
Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?
EPP
result:
Yes
S&D
result:
No
ID
result:
No
4 others
7
comments
63
forecasters
Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?
7%
chance
5
comments
47
forecasters
Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?
51%
chance
1
comment
49
forecasters
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?
77%
chance
condition
European Army before 2032?
2
forecasters
if yes
if no
Date EU Ceases to Exist?
2185
Date EU Ceases to Exist?
2142
2
0
comments
2
2
forecasters
11
comments
27
forecasters
How many seats will the Identity and Democracy (ID) party win in the 2024 European parliamentary elections?
community
70.7
result
Annulled
3
comments
33
forecasters
Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections?
EPP
result:
Yes
S&D
result:
No
Renew
result:
No
4 others
27
comments
53
forecasters
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?
85%
chance
25
comments
26
forecasters
Which alliance will form the 2024 EU Commission?
EPP + S&D + RE
Annulled
EPP + S&D + RE + G/EFA
Annulled
EPP + S&D + G/EFA
Annulled
3 others
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