Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?2% chance11 comment132132 forecasters2%chance
Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?2% chance799 comments8585 forecasters2%chance
Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections?533 comments3333 forecasters
Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?422 comments3434 forecasters
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?75% chance311 comment5252 forecasters75%chance
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?88% chance52727 comments5858 forecasters88%chance
How many seats will the Identity and Democracy (ID) party win in the 2024 European parliamentary elections?Annulled41111 comments2727 forecastersAnnulled
Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?10% chance91414 comments5757 forecasters10%chance
Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?0.1% chance976767 comments986986 forecasters0.1%chance