[PRACTICE] Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?2% chance288288 comments156156 forecasters2%chance
Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?2% chance0 comments4545 forecasters2%chance
Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?1.8% chance566 comments108108 forecasters1.8%chance
Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?422 comments3434 forecasters
Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?3.9% chance799 comments8686 forecasters3.9%chance
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?66.7% chance311 comment5454 forecasters66.7%chance
Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections?533 comments3333 forecasters
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?87% chance52727 comments5959 forecasters87%chance
How many seats will the Identity and Democracy (ID) party win in the 2024 European parliamentary elections?70.7 (63.4 - 80)41111 comments2727 forecasters70.7 (63.4 - 80)
Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?15.8% chance91414 comments5959 forecasters15.8%chance
Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?0.1% chance976767 comments986986 forecasters0.1%chance