Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
❓
Top Questions
🗞️
In the News
🦾
AI Forecasting Benchmark
💎
Metaculus Cup
⏳
AI 2027
🌍
AI Pathways
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
5
comments
38
forecasters
Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?
45%
chance
10%
this week
1
comment
50
forecasters
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?
76%
chance
7
comments
58
forecasters
Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?
10%
chance
67
comments
959
forecasters
Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?
0.3%
chance
3
comments
33
forecasters
Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections?
EPP
result:
Yes
S&D
result:
No
Renew
result:
No
4 others
2
comments
34
forecasters
Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?
EPP
result:
Yes
S&D
result:
No
ID
result:
No
4 others
27
comments
54
forecasters
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?
84%
chance
11
comments
27
forecasters
How many seats will the Identity and Democracy (ID) party win in the 2024 European parliamentary elections?
community
70.7
result
Annulled
25
comments
26
forecasters
Which alliance will form the 2024 EU Commission?
EPP + S&D + RE
Annulled
EPP + S&D + RE + G/EFA
Annulled
EPP + S&D + G/EFA
Annulled
3 others
condition
War in Europe by 2153?
5
forecasters
if yes
if no
Date EU Ceases to Exist?
2105
Date EU Ceases to Exist?
2145
3
0
comments
5
5
forecasters
Load More