Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
🗳️
US Democracy Index
❓
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
🗞️
In the News
🦾
AI Forecasting Benchmark
📈
Indexes
💎
Metaculus Cup
🌍
AI Pathways
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
5
comments
89
forecasters
Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?
3%
chance
Key Factors
German stance
Fractured parliament and weak government in France
U.S. nuclear umbrella uncertainty
2
comments
34
forecasters
Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?
EPP
result:
Yes
S&D
result:
No
ID
result:
No
4 others
5
comments
48
forecasters
Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?
50%
chance
10
comments
66
forecasters
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates?
67
comments
967
forecasters
Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?
0.1%
chance
11
comments
27
forecasters
How many seats will the Identity and Democracy (ID) party win in the 2024 European parliamentary elections?
community
70.7
result
Annulled
7
comments
64
forecasters
Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?
7%
chance
5
comments
11
forecasters
When will these countries adopt the Euro?
00
0
comments
12
forecasters
Will visits by a US President to EU member states fall below 1 visit/year for a period of at least three years before 2051?
17%
chance
3
comments
33
forecasters
Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections?
EPP
result:
Yes
S&D
result:
No
Renew
result:
No
4 others
Load More