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5
comments
59
forecasters
Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?
9%
chance
5%
this week
7
comments
63
forecasters
Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?
7%
chance
3%
this week
5
comments
46
forecasters
Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?
50%
chance
10
comments
65
forecasters
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates?
2
comments
34
forecasters
Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?
EPP
result:
Yes
S&D
result:
No
ID
result:
No
4 others
5
comments
11
forecasters
When will these countries adopt the Euro?
00
3
comments
33
forecasters
Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections?
EPP
result:
Yes
S&D
result:
No
Renew
result:
No
4 others
27
comments
54
forecasters
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?
85%
chance
11
comments
27
forecasters
How many seats will the Identity and Democracy (ID) party win in the 2024 European parliamentary elections?
community
70.7
result
Annulled
25
comments
26
forecasters
Which alliance will form the 2024 EU Commission?
EPP + S&D + RE
Annulled
EPP + S&D + RE + G/EFA
Annulled
EPP + S&D + G/EFA
Annulled
3 others
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