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105 forecasters

Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?

4%chance

5% this week

Key Factors

140 forecasters

Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?

Together for the Republic70.9%

No Prime Minister13.1%

Other6%

Key Factors

13 forecasters

Will a referendum on adopting the euro be officially announced in the Czech Republic before 2030?

25%chance

Key Factors

88 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

4%chance

Key Factors

34 forecasters

Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?

EPPresult: Yes

S&Dresult: No

IDresult: No

48 forecasters

Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?

50%chance

64 forecasters

Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?

7%chance

164 forecasters

Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?

72%chance

12 forecasters

Will the UK join or create a youth mobility scheme with the EU before 2030?

90%chance

19 forecasters

[Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid?

resultYes