Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

❓

Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?

Together for the Republic78.8%

Other8.6%

No Prime Minister3.8%

5 comments

38 forecasters

Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?

45%chance

5% this week

34 comments

164 forecasters

Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?

75%chance

2 comments

19 forecasters

[Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid?

resultYes

7 comments

58 forecasters

Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?

10%chance

67 comments

959 forecasters

Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

0.3%chance

3 comments

33 forecasters

Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections?

EPPresult: Yes

S&Dresult: No

Renewresult: No

2 comments

34 forecasters

Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?

EPPresult: Yes

S&Dresult: No

IDresult: No

27 comments

54 forecasters

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?

84%chance

25 comments

26 forecasters

Which alliance will form the 2024 EU Commission?

EPP + S&D + REAnnulled

EPP + S&D + RE + G/EFAAnnulled

EPP + S&D + G/EFAAnnulled