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US Democracy Index

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Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?

10%chance

10% this week

Key Factors

3.9k comments

3.6k forecasters

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Gretchen Whitmerresult: No

Pete Buttigiegresult: No

82 comments

235 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes

Kamala Harris (D)result: No

Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled

1 comment

36 forecasters

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana’s two majority-Black districts, restoring a GOP-leaning map?

81%chance

Key Factors

7 comments

41 forecasters

Will the US deploy military forces in Mexico without the cooperation of the Mexican government before 2029?

15%chance

3% this week

8 comments

40 forecasters

Will the USA invade Mexico and acknowledge that invasion before January 20, 2029?

8%chance

Key Factors

0 comments

7 forecasters

Will the 2025 return of professional investor Bill Ackman beat the return of any of these politicians?

10%chance

5% this week

Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

6 6 comments

U.S. Democracy Threat Index

73 comments

314 forecasters

Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections?

Democrat Senate, Rep Houseresult: Yes

Republican Senate & Houseresult: No

Republican Senate, Dem Houseresult: No

0 comments

10 forecasters

Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?