418 comments
1.2k forecasters
Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trumpresult: Yes
Nikki Haleyresult: No
Ron DeSantisresult: No
3.9k comments
3.6k forecasters
Who will be elected US President in 2024?
Donald Trumpresult: Yes
Gretchen Whitmerresult: No
Pete Buttigiegresult: No
82 comments
235 forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump (R)result: Yes
Kamala Harris (D)result: No
Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled
584 comments
1.2k forecasters
Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Kamala Harrisresult: Yes
Joe Bidenresult: No
Gavin Newsomresult: No
9 comments
309 forecasters
Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?
21%chance
4% this week
Key Factors
0 comments
6 forecasters
Will the 2025 return of professional investor Bill Ackman beat the return of any of these politicians?
10%chance
0 comments
94 forecasters
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?
Current estimate
7.37
2 comments
36 forecasters
Will the Economist stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?
20%chance
5% this week
