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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index
13
0
comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
418
comments
1.2k
forecasters
Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump
result:
Yes
Nikki Haley
result:
No
Ron DeSantis
result:
No
14 others
82
comments
235
forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump (R)
result:
Yes
Kamala Harris (D)
result:
No
Gavin Newsom (D)
Annulled
17 others
3.9k
comments
3.6k
forecasters
Who will be elected US President in 2024?
Donald Trump
result:
Yes
Gretchen Whitmer
result:
No
Pete Buttigieg
result:
No
17 others
16
comments
38
forecasters
Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states?
Texas
result:
Yes
Florida
result:
Yes
Missouri
result:
Yes
12 others
60
comments
317
forecasters
Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?
3%
chance
29
comments
80
forecasters
Will the US continuously be a Liberal Democracy until 2030, 2040, and 2050?
2030
63%
2040
40%
2050
40%
12
comments
33
forecasters
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?
10%
chance
25
comments
103
forecasters
Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?
1.5%
chance
Fiscal Showdown 2025 Is Live — $5,000 Prize Pool
11
2
2
comments
Fiscal Showdown 2025
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