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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

13
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
418 comments
1.2k forecasters

Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes
Nikki Haleyresult: No
Ron DeSantisresult: No
82 comments
235 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes
Kamala Harris (D)result: No
Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled
3.9k comments
3.6k forecasters

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes
Gretchen Whitmerresult: No
Pete Buttigiegresult: No
16 comments
38 forecasters

Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states?

Texasresult: Yes
Floridaresult: Yes
Missouriresult: Yes
60 comments
317 forecasters

Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?

3%chance
29 comments
80 forecasters

Will the US continuously be a Liberal Democracy until 2030, 2040, and 2050?

203063%
204040%
205040%
12 comments
33 forecasters

Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?

10%chance
25 comments
103 forecasters

Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?

1.5%chance

Fiscal Showdown 2025 Is Live — $5,000 Prize Pool

11
22 comments
Fiscal Showdown 2025