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0 comments
40 forecasters

Will the 2025 return of professional investor Bill Ackman beat the return of any of these politicians?

Current estimate
Revealed in 3 days

Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

16
55 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
418 comments
1.2k forecasters

Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes
Nikki Haleyresult: No
Ron DeSantisresult: No
82 comments
235 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes
Kamala Harris (D)result: No
Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled
13 comments
35 forecasters

Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?

10%chance
3.9k comments
3.6k forecasters

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes
Gretchen Whitmerresult: No
Pete Buttigiegresult: No
38 comments
80 forecasters

Will the US continuously be a Liberal Democracy until 2030, 2040, and 2050?

203060%
204040%
205033%
16 comments
38 forecasters

Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states?

Texasresult: Yes
Floridaresult: Yes
Missouriresult: Yes
60 comments
319 forecasters

Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?

3%chance
25 comments
103 forecasters

Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?

1%chance