What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments1616 forecasters
Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?50418418 comments1.2k1.2k forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?198282 comments235235 forecasters
Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states?91616 comments3838 forecasters
Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?2% chance256060 comments321321 forecasters2%chance
Will Jeff Bezos hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?2.6% chance888 comments9999 forecasters2.6%chance
Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?1% chance122525 comments103103 forecasters1%chance
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?7% chance21515 comments4242 forecasters7%chance
Will Aidan Caplan win his bet that the Supreme Court will not be packed as of July 4, 2028?96% chance10 comments3535 forecasters96%chance
Will Andrew Yang hold high Federal office in the United States before February 1 2037?5% chance101111 comments4444 forecasters5%chance
Will Blake Masters be President of the United States before 2070?1% chance21111 comments8484 forecasters1%chance