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🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!
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Announcing the Winners of the Q2 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
6
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Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
Announcing the Winners of the Q1 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
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2
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Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
Another Year of AI Benchmarking: The Plan
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Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
13
comments
82
forecasters
Will an incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023?
Ambiguous
4
comments
13
forecasters
Will alternative protein have a market share above 25% of that of meat before 2035?
1%
chance
4
comments
86
forecasters
Will soybeans be successfully de-allergenized before 2030?
27.8%
chance
1
comment
42
forecasters
When will a de-allergenized peanut, soy, or wheat-based product first be sold somewhere in the US or EU?
Current estimate
Apr 2031
69
comments
295
forecasters
Will there be a breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?
99%
chance
Champions of Conditional Forecasting
5
1
1
comment
Conditional Cup
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