Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?42% chance0 comments66 forecasters42%chance
Will an AdaptyvBio protein-binder competition have >75% of tested designs be classified as binders before 2030?45% chance22 comments1313 forecasters45%chance
Will there be a breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?99% chance326969 comments301301 forecasters99%chance
Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?result: no113535 comments127127 forecastersResolvedNo
Will an incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023?54% chance91313 comments8282 forecastersAmbiguous
Will there be an open-source repository of tools for alternative protein production before 2030?50% chance44 comments1010 forecasters50%chance
Will alternative protein have a market share above 25% of that of meat before 2035?4.5% chance244 comments1414 forecasters4.5%chance
Will soybeans be successfully de-allergenized before 2030?25% chance244 comments8989 forecasters25%chance
Does $100k to fund plant-based hamburger R&D have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?52.4% chance0 comments33 forecasters52.4%chance
Predict the median of experts' beliefs over "Does $100k to fund plant-based hamburger R&D have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?"0 comments
Predict the median of experts' beliefs over "Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?"0.726 0-100% stated probability (0.684 - 0.767)0 comments22 forecasters0.726 0-100% stated probability (0.684 - 0.767)
Predict experts' beliefs over “If the price of the... hamburger-imitating plant products fell by 10% ... how many more/fewer chickens consumed globally in 2030, as a +/- percent?0 comments
2030: Synth protein fiber cheaper than nylon? → Synthetic protein fibers 10% of production?0 comments22 forecasters
2030: open-source repo for alt-protein? → 2035: alternative protein market share >25%?0 comments44 forecasters
Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?40% chance81717 comments106106 forecasters40%chance
When will a de-allergenized peanut, soy, or wheat-based product first be sold somewhere in the US or EU?Jul 2031 (25 Sep 2029 - Oct 2034)411 comment4242 forecastersJul 2031 (25 Sep 2029 - Oct 2034)
What proportion of well-known QSRs will offer a cultivated meat product in 2026?0.0133% (0.00463 - 0.067)499 comments6464 forecasters0.0133% (0.00463 - 0.067)