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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

13
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index

Report: Pro Forecasters Expect Steady NIH and NSF Funding

5
33 comments
Research Agencies Outlook

Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

4
1010 comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
33 comments
AI Pathways Tournament
0 comments
98 forecasters

Will antimicrobial drug sales for use in livestock production increase by at least 0.5% in 2024 relative to 2023?

30%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
85 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2025-09-25 for the Metaculus question "Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?"?

Current estimate
Revealed in 42 minutes
0 comments
82 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 88.00% on 2025-09-27 for the Metaculus question "Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?"?

58%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
84 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 95.00% on 2025-09-26 for the Metaculus question "Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?"?

47.1%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
84 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2025-09-25 for the Metaculus question "Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?"?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
86 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 15.00% on 2025-09-23 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?

33%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.