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1 1 comment

12 comments

82 forecasters

Who will win the FIDE Chess World Cup 2025?

Someone else72%

Arjun Erigaisi19.8%

Wei Yi7.5%

0 comments

2 forecasters

Who will get the 2nd highest number of votes in round 1 of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Jeannette Jara24%

José Antonio Kast36%

Evelyn Matthei15%

0 comments

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Hugging Face)

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

101 forecasters

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

2%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

3 comments

7 forecasters

Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds compete in the 2025 FIDE World Cup final?

resultYes

0 comments

95 forecasters

How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025?

Latest estimate

40.7M birds

This question is closed for forecasting.

97 comments

97 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?

resultNo

96 comments

96 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question "Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?"?

resultNo