Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?66.7% chance755 comments3535 forecasters66.7%chance
How many New World Screwworm animal cases will be confirmed in the US in 2026?59.4 animal cases (33.3 - 129)133 comments88 forecasters59.4 animal cases (33.3 - 129)
Will a UK public body use an AI-generated map to identify areas with sufficient ecological monitoring coverage for trend analysis before 2030?50% chance22 comments1111 forecasters50%chance
Will a publicly accessible UK Ecological Resilience Dashboard cover ≥50% of land with multi-modal weekly data before 2035?40% chance33 comments88 forecasters40%chance
Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, before 2031?41% chance622 comments7171 forecasters41%chance
How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years?121010 comments8181 forecasters
How many American state ballots will have a factory farm ban on them by the end of 2030 due to Pro-Animal Future?0 comments11 forecaster
Does $100k to fund plant-based hamburger R&D have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?52.4% chance0 comments33 forecasters52.4%chance
Predict the median of experts' beliefs over "Does $100k to fund plant-based hamburger R&D have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?"0 comments
Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?42% chance0 comments66 forecasters42%chance
Predict the median of experts' beliefs over "Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?"0.726 0-100% stated probability (0.684 - 0.767)0 comments22 forecasters0.726 0-100% stated probability (0.684 - 0.767)
What percent of Earth's marine area will be protected for wildlife on the following dates?611 comment55 forecasters
What percent of Earth's land will be protected for wildlife on the following dates?866 comments88 forecasters
When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?>31 Dec 2024 (30 Aug 2024 - >31 Dec 2024)73232 comments4747 forecasters>31 Dec 2024 (30 Aug 2024 - >31 Dec 2024)
Five years after AGI, how many animals will be slaughtered in factory farms?81.8B billion animals (49.4B - 105B)41010 comments2222 forecasters81.8B billion animals (49.4B - 105B)
2030: $10M for plant data citizen science → 2035: plant farm use DB >25% species?11 comment11 forecaster
Will more than 33% of the earth's land area be covered by forest in 2050?22% chance101010 comments3232 forecasters22%chance
PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products42.7 (30.2 - 56.6)131414 comments6565 forecasters42.7 (30.2 - 56.6)
What percent of Earth's land will be protected for wildlife on January 1, 2050?27.2% (21 - 34.5)933 comments2222 forecasters27.2% (21 - 34.5)
Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018result: yes113030 comments8181 forecastersResolvedYes
How many countries will be awarded a B or better for farm animal welfare protection by to the Animal Protection Index by end of 2022?16.8 (13.2 - 21.3)288 comments1717 forecasters16.8 (13.2 - 21.3)