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How many New World Screwworm animal cases will be confirmed in the US in 2027?

72.4 cases (32.2 - 186)

2

15

15 forecasters

72.4 cases

(32.2 - 186)

How many New World Screwworm animal cases will be confirmed in the US in 2026?

62.5 animal cases (55.2 - 82.7)

2

17

17 forecasters

62.5 animal cases

(55.2 - 82.7)

Forecasting the Future of Animals: $3,400 in prizes

9

Will a UK public body use an AI-generated map to identify areas with sufficient ecological monitoring coverage for trend analysis before 2030?

78% chance

28

28 forecasters

78%chance

Will a publicly accessible UK Ecological Resilience Dashboard cover ≥50% of land with multi-modal weekly data before 2035?

25% chance

6

6 forecasters

25%chance

Does $100k to fund plant-based hamburger R&D have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?

41.5% chance

1

1 forecaster

41.5%chance

Predict the median of experts' beliefs over "Does $100k to fund plant-based hamburger R&D have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?"

Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?

36.7% chance

3

3 forecasters

36.7%chance

Predict the median of experts' beliefs over "Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?"

0.726 0-100% stated probability (0.684 - 0.767)

2

2 forecasters

0.726 0-100% stated probability

(0.684 - 0.767)

How many Pro-Animal Future city chapters will there be by the end of 2026?

1

1 forecaster

How many American state ballots will have a factory farm ban on them by the end of 2030 due to Pro-Animal Future?

1

1 forecaster

Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?

70% chance

7

42

42 forecasters

70%chance

How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years?

12

81

81 forecasters

What percent of Earth's land will be protected for wildlife on the following dates?

8

8

8 forecasters

What percent of Earth's marine area will be protected for wildlife on the following dates?

6

5

5 forecasters

When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?

>31 Dec 2024 (30 Aug 2024 - >31 Dec 2024)

7

47

47 forecasters

ResolvedMore than 31 Dec 2024

Five years after AGI, how many animals will be slaughtered in factory farms?

81.8B billion animals (49.4B - 105B)

4

22

22 forecasters

81.8B billion animals

(49.4B - 105B)

2030: $10M for plant data citizen science → 2035: plant farm use DB >25% species?

1

1 forecaster

Will Brazil reach zero primary forest loss before 2030?

5% chance

2

17

17 forecasters

5%chance

Will more than 33% of the earth's land area be covered by forest in 2050?

25.8% chance

10

31

31 forecasters

25.8%chance

PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products

42.7 (30.2 - 56.6)

13

65

65 forecasters

Resolved18.37

What percent of Earth's land will be protected for wildlife on January 1, 2050?

27.2% (21 - 34.5)

9

22

22 forecasters

27.2%

(21 - 34.5)