14 comments
85 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind13%
Microsoft5%
xAI3%
0 comments
29 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH16%
Microsoft Azure14%
Google Cloud12%
2 comments
38 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH27%
Microsoft Azure5%
Amazon Web Services5%
2 comments
35 forecasters
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?
AMD5%
Nvidia5%
Google5%
169 comments
243 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama30%
AI-Dystopia23.7%
Singularia18.9%
3 comments
68 forecasters
Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?
3%chance
20 comments
287 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
24%chance