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0
comments
32
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH
29%
Google Cloud
12%
Amazon Web Services
11%
1 other
2
comments
40
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH
25%
Amazon Web Services
5%
Microsoft Azure
5%
1 other
2
comments
36
forecasters
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?
AMD
5%
Nvidia
5%
Google
5%
14
comments
63
forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind
20%
Amazon
5%
Microsoft
4%
14 others
🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!
4
0
comments
21
comments
305
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%
chance
44
comments
434
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
28%
chance
0
comments
8
forecasters
When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?
Current estimate
25 Feb 2025
Another Year of AI Benchmarking: The Plan
11
0
comments
AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2
17
comments
97
forecasters
Quantum-enhanced machine learning by 2040?
60%
chance
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