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0 comments
32 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%
Google Cloud12%
Amazon Web Services11%
2 comments
40 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%
2 comments
36 forecasters

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

AMD5%
Nvidia5%
Google5%
14 comments
63 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind20%
Amazon5%
Microsoft4%

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

4
0 comments
21 comments
305 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30%chance
44 comments
434 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28%chance
0 comments
8 forecasters

When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?

Current estimate
25 Feb 2025

Another Year of AI Benchmarking: The Plan

11
0 comments
AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2
17 comments
97 forecasters

Quantum-enhanced machine learning by 2040?

60%chance